Commercial content 21+. 

The latest game on the college football schedule this Saturday projects as a blowout in oddsmakers’ minds, with USC priced as a three-touchdown favorite over Pac-12 rival California. But let’s not write this one off just yet.

Yes, the Trojans are 7-1 entering the late-night affair, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Lincoln Riley’s group hasn’t won a game by more than 17 points since non-conference play in mid-September, and nearly lost to lowly Arizona last week after losing outright to Utah the week before.

On the other side, the Golden Bears have hung around all year long. Their 18-point loss to Oregon last week was one point shy of their biggest defeat all year, and three of their other five losses came by exactly seven points. Even the margin last week is a bit of a mirage, as Cal tallied 402 yards and forced two turnovers, but couldn’t convert on third downs (4-for-15).

I’d expect a much closer outcome against USC, which simply hasn’t proven capable of putting together a complete game against a competent opponent all season. The Trojans actually lost outright the last time these two met, and while that’s likely an ambitious ask for the Golden Bears this year, they have the talent on both sides of the ball to stay within a few scores.