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Both the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves are within three games of their respective division leaders as we near the halfway point of the 2022 MLB season, but the mood surrounding the two clubs feels vastly different.
While the Braves have spent the last six weeks surging up the standings to whittle a 10.5-game deficit down to just 2.5 games, the Cardinals have lost five of six and seven of 11 to go from tied atop the NL Central to three games adrift.
St. Louis is a +150 underdog in Atlanta on Wednesday night and has the unenviable task of trying to get back on track against Atlanta ace Max Fried.
Cardinals vs. Braves odds
Odsd provided by BetMGM
Spread: STL +1.5 (-140) vs. ATL -1.5 (+115)
Moneyline: STL (+145) vs. ATL (-175)
Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | 8.5 (+100)
Cardinals vs. Braves prediction
Fried may not be the most electric pitcher out there, but it’s hard to argue with the 28-year-old’s results to this point in his career. After a sparkling performance in 2021 to help the Braves capture the World Series, Fried has stepped it up even further with an 8-2 record, 2.66 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 2.86 xFIP through 101.1 innings of work this season.
Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman of the Cardinals Getty ImagesFried’s batted ball data indicates that he’s earned every bit of his strong start as he ranks in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity, 90th percentile in barrel percentage, 75th percentile in hard-hit rate and ranks eighth among qualified pitchers with a 51.2% groundball rate.
Fried isn’t one to rack up strikeouts, but he’s still punching out 8.5 batters per nine innings and when you put that next to his 1.42 BB/9 (which is the third-best mark among qualified hurlers), you can easily see why the former first-round pick is the fourth-favorite to win the NL Cy Young this season.
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Miles Mikolas will get the task of trying to keep pace with Fried on Wednesday and his numbers this season suggest he could be up to the task. Mikolas checks into the halfway point of the season with a 5-6 record, but a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 3.87 xFIP through 100 innings of work.
And while Mikolas’ xFIP and 3.37 xERA suggest his ERA could tick up as the season wears on, his batted ball data is still strong. Mikolas ranks in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity, the 71st percentile in barrel rate and 81st percentile in hard hit rate. Like Fried, Mikolas doesn’t hand out many free passes and also does a great job of keeping the ball in the yard.
Fried is the A-side in this pitching matchup, but there are some signals that indicate that Mikolas could keep pace with the Braves ace on Wednesday night. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals boast the second-best wRC+ and fifth-best wOBA against left-handed pitching and you can start to see the path to success for St. Louis despite a tough pitching matchup.
Sean Zerillo’s Action Network MLB Model makes the Cardinals a +136 underdog on Wednesday night, so there’s still a bit of value on the Redbirds at +150.
Cardinals vs. Braves pick
St. Louis Cardinals +150 (BetMGM)
