Commercial Content, 21+

Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks, and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Chicago Bears. Be sure to check out our New York Giants preview, published earlier this week.

2021 record: 6-11, 3rd in NFC North

The Bears went all in, in 2018, swinging a massive trade for Khalil Mack to anchor what they believed to be a championship defense. The problem was Mitch Trubisky was the quarterback, and Matt Nagy was the head coach. It didn’t work out, and now they’re paying the bill. Nearly everyone involved with that Bears era is gone, and years of subpar investments and draft trade-ups have left the roster barren.

Now, they start over with a first-time head coach (Matt Eberflus), first-time GM (Ryan Poles), and second-year QB Justin Fields, who was drafted by the last regime in a last-ditch (and unsuccessful) effort to save their jobs. Poles gutted the roster, added several draft picks (one via a Mack trade), and created over $100 million in cap space in 2023, giving the team a quick avenue to improvement if Fields takes a leap this year. But even if that happens, the roster is not in a good spot in 2022 — so bettors looking for a breakout team with a young quarterback will want to look elsewhere.

Week 1: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 2: at Green Bay Packers
Week 3: vs. Houston Texans
Week 4: at New York Giants
Week 5: at Minnesota Vikings
Week 6: vs. Washington Commanders
Week 7: at New England Patriots
Week 8: at Dallas Cowboys
Week 9: vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 10: vs. Detroit Lions
Week 11: at Atlanta Falcons
Week 12: at New York Jets
Week 13: vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 16: vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 17: at Detroit Lions
Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings

It’s a bit curious that the Bears’ win total was set (and has remained) at 6.5 – a full game higher than the Jets and Seahawks. The general consensus around Chicago has been that they sport one of the worst rosters in the league, despite hope remaining for Fields to take a second-year leap. The new regime has stripped the roster of its parts, trading Mack and letting players such as Allen Robinson and James Daniels walk in free agency.

The remaining group of young, unproven players – especially on offense – has led the betting public to pounce on the Under. Per Caesars, 86.6 percent of its Bears win-total handle was on Under 6.5 as of last week. Clearly, the public and the betting market are disconnected on this one.

I trust the market over anything, and in situations like this would typically look to make a contrarian ‘Over’ bet. But it’s really hard to see a scenario in which this Bears team gets to seven wins. They have a rookie head coach. Fields showed flashes as a rookie but was inconsistent and struggled with turnovers. Luke Getsy, the new offensive coordinator, tasked with his development, has never called plays in a regular-season game. The top four pass catchers will likely be Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Byron Pringle, and Velus Jones.

Yes, their schedule is on the easier side, but it’s dangerous to buy into strength of schedule before the season starts. And while it’s possible Fields will have a breakout year, it’s just as possible that the team’s lack of depth buries it in 2022. The offensive line got better when Chicago signed Riley Reiff and Michael Schofield last week, but if they (or any of the other OL veterans) get injured, a number of fifth-round-or-later rookies are waiting behind them on the depth chart. I’d tread carefully since the ‘Under’ is juiced to -145, but there’s just too much uncertainty surrounding this team to expect it to get to seven wins.

LEAN Under 6.5

I know what you’re thinking: “Wow, you just spent several paragraphs ripping the Bears’ roster, and now you’re picking them to cover against a team that just went to the NFC Championship Game?” Fair point. But hear me out.

Week 1 is a week of uncertainty in the NFL, and there are few teams with more uncertainty heading into the season than the 49ers. Trey Lance, who was drafted eight picks ahead of Fields, was named the starting quarterback. Lance got two starts in his rookie season, losing 17-10 to the Cardinals and beating the lowly Texans, 23-7. The year before, he played one exhibition game in the COVID-shortened season, and the year before that was his only year as a college starter — at FCS North Dakota State.

Lance may end up being a star — but will it happen right away? On the road in the first week of the season? Six-and-a-half is a huge number for any road favorite, even against a bad team.

Fields faced the 49ers last season at home and had a good game — one that would have had a closer score had the Bears secondary put up any semblance of a fight against the experienced Jimmy Garoppolo. The Bears may not win, but I’d be willing to bet that they keep it closer than most expect on the lakefront in Chicago.

This is a huge long shot, so bet responsibly, please. Really, it’s the only bet for Herbert I could find at a book, and a way to buy into my belief that he is arguably the better back for this team. And that’s not to put down David Montgomery at all; he is also a stud, but much more of a tackle-breaking grinder than an ideal back for the new outside zone scheme that offensive coordinator Luke Getsy wants to run. Herbert brings speed that Montgomery arguably doesn’t have – his 4.48 40-yard dash at the combine beat Montgomery’s 4.63 – and excellent vision to boot.

Montgomery will begin the season as the starter, but while the new regime has said sparkling things about him in the media, they are not the ones who drafted him, and may find Herbert to be a better fit. The Bears are going to be a run-heavy team in 2022, and if injury or performance pushes Herbert into the starter job, he could rack up the yards. 200/1 is a lottery ticket – if you find a yardage over in the 300s or 400s, take that instead. But there is a universe where Herbert plays 17 games and finds his way near the top of the yardage list by the end of the season.