Commercial Content, 21+

Our NFL betting expert offers his best betting picks and predictions for the matchup between the Chiefs and Colts scheduled for Sunday in Indianapolis at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

The Chiefs (2-0) are off to their customary fast start, while the Colts (0-1-1) have been a big disappointment through the first two weeks.

How will the two fare in this meeting? Here are our best bets for the NFL Sunday showdown.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown 48 touchdowns and three interceptions while going 13-2 as a starter in September. There is no reason to expect an end to the success this week.

That said, a desperate Colts team could keep it close on their home field.

The Colts spent a good part of the offseason making sure everyone knew quarterback Carson Wentz was the reason they missed the playoffs last season. Then they acquired veteran quarterback Matt Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons, and the problem was supposed to be resolved.

But Indianapolis surely didn’t look like a playoff-caliber club when it got drubbed 24-0 by the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars last week. The Colts had just 218 yards and nine first downs. Ryan tossed three interceptions and was sacked five times.

Indianapolis badly needs a win. The wrong team is coming into town; Mahomes and the Chiefs are more worried about improving to 3-0 and won’t have time to feel pity toward the Colts.

But we all know what can happen when a team has its back against the wall. We see that scenario loud and clear. We’re not saying Indianapolis will win, but the Colts will cover as a home dog.

Our Pick: Colts to cover +5.5 spread

Mahomes has completed 73 percent of his passes for 595 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He tossed five touchdown passes in the season-opening win over the Arizona Cardinals and two more in last week’s victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.

There was a debate in the offseason about how much the Kansas City passing game would be affected by losing Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins. So far, effects have been minimal – though the Chiefs are still waiting to see if someone steps up as the go-to wideout.

Travis Kelce leads Kansas City in receptions with 13 to raise his career total to 717, sixth most among tight ends in NFL history. Kelce (172 yards) is surely on his way to his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard season.

There’s no slowing down the Chiefs even if this week shapes up as a stronger showing for Indy.

Our Pick: Over 50.5 total points to be scored

A quick study of best available props brings a few options, but we’re coming up all Mahomes here.

Ryan (over/under 243.5 passing yards) has thrown just one touchdown pass while being intercepted four times. He could surpass the yardage with the chances being better if Indianapolis is playing from behind.

The Colts should unleash Jonathan Taylor (84.5 rushing yards) against the Chiefs. Last season’s NFL rushing leader is third through two games with 215 yards on 40 carries, and a big performance by him will take pressure off Ryan.

Mahomes, though, is still Mr. September, and the expectation should be that he will have another special performance.

Our Pick: Mahomes over 289.5 passing yards

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.