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Fresh off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL postseason history, the Jaguars have a new challenge ahead of them: knocking off the top-seeded Chiefs, who have reached the AFC Championship in each of the last four seasons and are the current favorites to win it all.

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Oddsmakers like Kansas City’s chances to make it five straight, pricing this group as nearly a double-digit favorite to win its first playoff game since last year’s dramatic loss to the Bengals. We’ve seen a little buyback on Jacksonville, though, in what should be an entertaining start to the NFL divisional round.

Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest, which kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

There are two ways to think about Saturday’s contest between the Chiefs and Jaguars: who will win, and who will cover?

If you’re handicapping who’s going to win outright, you’d have every reason to back Kansas City in this spot. The Chiefs finished the season ranked fourth in DVOA and scoring differential, winning 10 of their last 11 games to clinch the top spot in the AFC and earn a week off between Week 18 and their playoff opener on Saturday.

They also have playoff history on their side. Patrick Mahomes owns an 8-3 record in the postseason – trailing only Joe Burrow (4-1) and Tom Brady (35-13) in win percentage among active quarterbacks – and has won six of those 11 games by double digits. He’s also never failed to reach the conference championship round in his four years as a starter.

The Jaguars were mighty impressive this season en route to their first division title in five years, but they simply haven’t reached those same heights. They ranked 13th in DVOA and needed to rip off five straight wins just to reach the postseason, where they fell behind by 27 points before mounting one of the most impressive comebacks in league history.

A win for Jacksonville here, at least on paper, feels unlikely. A win against the spread? That’s a different story.

For as prolific as Mahomes and Co. have been in the win-loss column, they’ve been hit or miss as big favorites. Over the last three seasons, the former MVP winner is just 11-18 against the spread when favored by seven or more points and just 1-2 ATS in such games in the postseason. That includes last year’s epic collapse in the conference championship, when the Bengals pulled off a miracle comeback of their own to reach the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs also haven’t blown teams out this year like they once would. Kansas City went just 2-4-1 ATS as a home favorite this year and had as many games decided by three or fewer points (4) as it did by double digits (4) since its Week 8 bye.

Compare that to the Jaguars, who at one point lost five straight games by one possession before turning their season around. Since its bye week in Week 11 – which came one week after losing by 10 points in Kansas City – Jacksonville has won seven of eight games (6-2 ATS) with six straight victories entering Saturday.

The Jaguars are white hot following last week’s come-from-behind win, while the Chiefs are prime candidates for some early rust after sitting out last week. Since 2003, No. 1 seeds are 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) in the divisional round after a wild-card bye; meanwhile, Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson owns a perfect 6-0 ATS record as a playoff underdog with five outright wins.

Kansas City is the better team heading into Saturday’s matchup, and it’s unlikely that this group will cough up its playoff opener after the way last season ended. Yet there’s enough concern after a long layoff and this team’s underwhelming history as a big favorite to take the points against a team that has starred in an underdog role all season long.