With conference play in college basketball upon us, it’s the perfect time to review handicapping fundamentals.
The great thing about conference action, whatever the league, is that all the teams play very similar schedules. Everyone starts over, within confined parameters. Handicappers and bettors can throw out possibly polluted perceptions from nonconference schedules that were too easy (cupcakes on parade) or too difficult (made-for-TV testers).
Some leagues play double round-robin rotations. Others are too big for that, but still play so many games that “strength of schedule” within the league is extremely similar. That makes scoring margins, team stats and player stats great indicators for quality.
Believe it or not, schedule-strength ratings usually settle within four or five games of league action. That doesn’t seem like a huge sample size. And, nobody should bet irresponsibly large amounts because of what they see in a handful of games. But observers will see the general picture come into focus that quickly, even if they completely ignored the season up until that point.
VSiN likes to emphasize these team stat categories in college hoops: offensive and defensive efficiency (scoring adjusted for pace), turnover percentage on both sides of the floor and rebound percentage. If you have a favorite conference, it would behoove you to log these stats on a game-by-game basis. That’s a manageable task because teams typically play just two games a week.
If you’re not comfortable with advanced analytic stats, simply using standard, old-school box scores to log 2-point shooting, 3-point shooting, rebound differential and turnover differential will get you there. You’ll recognize team strengths and weaknesses quickly.
Should you study individual players? This is generally overrated in game broadcasts, where announcers want to focus on star power to generate narratives. There are certainly teams where one main guy is “the straw that stirs the drink.” Nothing wrong with looking for that workhorse, then fading his team when he’s hurt or worn down later in the season. (You’ll learn to fade head coaches who overemphasize a workhorse at the expense of building a complete team.)
Many of you are probably wondering about the value of home-court advantage in conference play. The market typically uses about three points as a general rule. Some sharps use only 2¹/₂ points in geographically compact leagues. Others emphasize “road-court disadvantage” more for very young travelers lacking experience.
TV broadcasts that focus on crowd sizes are prone to exaggerate the impact of home court. Boisterous student bodies don’t push the number much higher than three. Empty arenas may not knock it down. Much of the “advantage” for hosts involves visitors’ travel fatigue and unfamiliarity with shooting backdrops.
Now that college football is almost out of the picture, VSiN will talk much more about college hoops handicapping through March Madness. Relative parity among “Dance-caliber” teams will create an intriguing challenge.
