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When the college football season started, there were six teams that were consensus national championship contenders: Texas, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Georgia and Clemson. 

You also could have included Alabama and Notre Dame in that mix, but most sportsbooks, pundits, and fans had that sextet pegged as the “sure things” when it came to securing a spot in the College Football Playoff.

As we head into the second half of the regular season, two of those teams (Penn State, Clemson) have no chance of making it to the tournament, and Texas, the preseason favorite to win the national championship, is hanging on by a thread. 

It feels like you can write Ohio State, Indiana, and Miami down in permanent marker given their unblemished records and remaining schedules, but the Hurricanes would be the first to tell you that is a dangerous way of thinking. 

Miami started last season 9-0 but missed the College Football Playoff after getting shocked by Georgia Tech and Syracuse down the stretch. 

The two other preseason favorites, Oregon and Georgia, would be in the tournament if the season ended today, but they’re on thin ice after losing to Indiana and Alabama, respectively. 

Oregon’s schedule is relatively light, save for a couple of tricky games against USC and Washington to close out the campaign, but Georgia still has a gauntlet to run, starting with a visit from undefeated Ole Miss on Saturday.

Alabama is in the same boat. The Crimson Tide recovered from a Week 1 defeat to Florida State, but another defeat could really put their spot in jeopardy, especially since the Seminoles have been found out to be a paper tiger.

It’s pure chaos, and we didn’t even get into the scenarios surrounding LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Notre Dame, USC, Nebraska, Washington, Utah, Virginia, Cincinnati, Missouri, Georgia Tech, or any of the contenders from the Group of 5. 

Not all of those teams are good enough to win the national championship, but they all have a path to get there.

With so many teams still in the mix, there’s bound to be some value in the betting market. 

Three teams stand out:

The Tigers have won 21 games the past two seasons and look like a real threat for another double-digit campaign after a 5-1 start. Their lone blemish came in a 27-24 defeat to Alabama, so Missouri can still crash the postseason party with a strong second half.

The schedule includes Auburn, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Oklahoma, and going 3-1 in that mini gauntlet should be enough to keep Mizzou’s hopes alive as long as they take care of business outside those four games.

According to SP+, Bill Connelly’s catch-all power rating, the Tigers are the eighth-best team in the country, so they’re absolutely good enough to make some noise in the Playoff if they punch their way in.

You could argue Nebraska’s schedule is set up perfectly, given where they stand after six games.

The Huskers are 5-1, with their lone loss being completely forgivable since it came against Michigan.

Standing in Nebraska’s way the rest of the season are Minnesota, Northwestern, USC, UCLA, Penn State, and Iowa. Overall, it’s a manageable schedule, with a couple of really tricky opponents (USC, Penn State, and Iowa) sprinkled in.

Running the table is unlikely, but not out of the question for Nebraska, which has a great coach, a game-winner at quarterback in Dylan Raiola, and a standout defense.

If you want to really lean into the chaos, you can do it with the Tigers.

They’ve scored 20 or more points in 46 consecutive games, they own the longest winning streak in the country (10), and they have a schedule that will provide enough tests (USF, Tulane and Navy) to impress the committee if they pass them.

Memphis has a three-headed monster of a running game with quarterback Brendon Lewis and tailbacks Greg Desrosiers Jr. and Sutton Smith, and head coach Ryan Silverfield is a budding star. 

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.