LAS VEGAS — With the release of regular-season win totals just on the horizon, it’s a great time to look ahead at the coming college football season. Bettors will want to be ready to jump on the early Over/Unders wherever they see value.
I have researched all of the teams and conferences and set up my baseline power ratings for the season. I then compared these ratings against each team’s schedule to come up with the projected win-loss records for each team.
Let’s look at some of the highlights:
Clemson has the highest win projection of any team, with 11.6, a bit better than Alabama (11.1), Oklahoma (10.9), Georgia (10.4) and Army (10.0). The Tide and Bulldogs are expected to win their respective SEC divisions, setting up a rematch of last year’s SEC Championship game.
The Tigers are an overwhelming choice to win the ACC, projected to win at least three more games than any other conference mate, while Oklahoma also looks to be a prohibitive choice in the Big 12, despite having to replace QB Kyler Murray in 2019.
Former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts is the front-runner for that job, a story that will be one to watch as coach Lincoln Riley tries to turn a transfer into a Heisman winner for the third year in a row.
Assuming the projections play out accurately, besides Clemson, Alabama, and Oklahoma, the other Power 5 conference teams that would be expected to contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff this year would be Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Utah. Notre Dame, predicted to go 9.5-2.5, could also be in the mix.
Memphis and Boise State (9.8 wins each) have the highest projected win total of any non-Power 5 team, although Appalachian State (9.5) and Central Florida (9.4) are close.
According to my figures, South Carolina plays the nation’s toughest schedule, at least as it stands now.
The Gamecocks are ranked just ahead of USC and Auburn in that regard, and along with Texas A&M, face the unenviable task of having to play both Clemson and Alabama in 2019.
They do bring back QB Jake Bentley, who has started 32 games at SC in his career, along with several other contributors on both sides of the ball.
My projections show a record of 5.7-6.3, so a better chance to finish under .500 than over for head coach Will Muschamp’s team.
The country’s easiest schedules belong to UAB and Army out of Conference USA. The Blazers come off an impressive 11-3 season in 2018, one that culminated in the program’s first-ever bowl game victory. Army, another big bowl game winner that won 11 games, has the country’s second-easiest schedule. Both teams are expected to see bowl games in 2019, according to my projections.
North Carolina is expected to win the most games in the regular season compared to last year, with a projected increase of 3.2 victories. Nebraska and Central Michigan (2.9), Western Kentucky and UCLA (2.8), and Arkansas (2.7) are the next teams on that list.
In terms of declines from last season, Utah State (with a projected 3.2-win drop) heads the list, followed by Georgia Tech (2.7), Cincinnati and Middle Tennessee State (2.6) and Buffalo and Notre Dame (2.5).
