Logo

Commercial Content 21+

These are strange times we live in.

Last Saturday, Alabama, and Clemson lost on the same day for the first time in nine years. For the first time in the playoff era, Alabama and Clemson — neither holding a top-five ranking for the first time in seven years — will both be watching from home. 

It is odd. And it is overdue. No sport has a greater need for new blood than college football does.

Even with Georgia set to defend its crown and the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game again on track to claim a playoff spot for the Big Ten, the other two spots could be filled by teams that were unranked when the season began.

Get a $50 Bonus Bet + up to $1K Back in Bonus Bets! with code NPBONUS50
21+. New customers only. AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Tu0026amp;C apply

Caesars Sportsbook Logo Square
First bet up To $1,250 On Caesars
New players only, 21+. Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, TN, VA, WV only. Full T&C apply.

Get a No Sweat First Bet up to $1000!
New users only, 21 or older. Available in AZ, CT, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full T&C apply.

No. 5 Tennessee remains the third-strongest favorite to make the field (-240), likely needing just three convincing wins over three unranked opponents to qualify. No. 4 TCU would join them if it remains perfect, but the Horned Frogs have burned through their supply of horseshoes. 

TCU, owner of the nation’s 87th-ranked defense, has been on the ropes for five straight games. It was tied in the final minutes against Kansas. It faced a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to Oklahoma State and was in an 18-point hole against Kansas State. It trailed West Virginia and Texas Tech in the fourth quarter. And somehow, the Horned Frogs escaped with wins each time.

That is why TCU is the biggest underdog of any top-five team facing a team ranked outside the top 15 in at least four decades. It is why the Horned Frogs’ house of cards is due to collapse in Austin against the explosive offense of Texas, which has longtime TCU coach Gary Patterson as an “analyst” on defense. Patterson recruited and/or coaches virtually every one of TCU’s key players.

Note to ABC: Suspend Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit or both if either one of them declares a win by TEXAS (-7) an “upset.”

College Football Week 11 predictions, odds, picks against spread

Indiana (+39.5) over OHIO STATE

Even after an atrocious showing at Northwestern, the Buckeyes are still the team to beat in the Big Ten. Four quarters of consistency have eluded them lately, however, giving the Hoosiers hope — of keeping this blowout within 40.


  Louisville Cardinals running back Jawhar Jordan Icon Sportswire via Getty Images Louisville Cardinals running back Jawhar Jordan Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Betting on College Football?

TENNESSEE (-21) over Missouri

On paper, the Tigers’ 11th-ranked defense could pose a problem. In reality, Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker and friends won’t have any greater trouble lighting it up than when they scored a total of 96 points against Alabama (ranked 10th) and Kentucky (ranked 13th). Georgia can defang any offense. 

LSU (-3) over ARKANSAS:

It doesn’t get any more square than this, but letdown alone is not enough of a reason to fade the first-place Tigers. LSU has won its only two SEC road games this season, and dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels (14 touchdowns, one interception) won’t give the Razorbacks extra opportunities to close the gap between the teams. 


  LSU Tigers players signal a turnover during a game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers Icon Sportswire via Getty Images LSU Tigers players signal a turnover during a game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Louisville (+7) over CLEMSON:

Dabo Swinney’s decision to bench an established starting quarterback for a five-star freshman won Clemson the 2018 national championship. His reluctance to pull the trigger again has now cost the Tigers a playoff berth. Fade them as long as DJ Uiagalelei remains under center.

Nebraska (+30.5) over MICHIGAN:

The three hours are better spent debating which school would have won a hypothetical national championship game 25 years ago. Scott Frost probably would have sunk that season, too, with a late interception by Charles Woodson.

MISSISSIPPI (+11.5) over Alabama:

The Crimson Tide have played four games decided by four points or fewer this season, including all three matchups against ranked teams. A double-digit spread is even harder to cover without the aura and intimidation that’s been attached to Nick Saban’s teams for more than a decade.

PENN STATE (-10.5) over Maryland:

Few outcomes are as predictable as the Terrapins stumbling against a ranked opponent. Maryland has dropped 10 straight games against ranked teams, covering just once. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa shoulders much of the blame. Johnny Drama has nine touchdowns and 14 interceptions while averaging 235 passing yards in six of those losing efforts.


  Kaytron Allen #13 of the Penn State Nittany Lions Getty Images Kaytron Allen #13 of the Penn State Nittany Lions Getty Images

Washington (+13.5) over OREGON:

The Ducks have won eight straight since their season-opening embarrassment against Georgia, but QB Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies’ throw-heavy attack should be able to keep up against the nation’s 127th-ranked pass defense.

Georgia (-16.5) over MISSISSIPPI STATE:

Since the most befuddling game of the season — Georgia’s nail-biting 26-22 win at Missouri — the defending champs have looked the part, winning three straight games by an average of 36 points, before demolishing Tennessee. The nation’s top-ranked team has covered seven of its past eight road games when favored by at least 14 points.

Florida State (-7) over SYRACUSE:

The Orange have lost three straight games since their 6-0 start and may be without quarterback Garrett Shrader again after the offense was kept out of the end zone last week. “I would say he’s got an ‘owie’ that we’re sensitive to,” Syracuse coach Dino Babers said. Another boo-boo awaits without him.

UTAH (-24) over Stanford:

Cardinal coach David Shaw is going out on bottom, after losing his past two games by a total of 63 points. The return of Utes QB Cameron Rising will fuel the latest embarrassment, giving the Stanford administration another reason to move on from its 12th-year coach.

Arizona (+19.5) over UCLA:

The second-ranked Bruins offense is a lock to put up at least 45 points against the seventh-worst defense in the land. But even without the distraction of the battle next week against USC looming, Chip Kelly’s uninspiring defense wouldn’t put up much resistance against a team averaging nearly 31 points per game.

BEST BETS: LSU, Louisville, Utah

THIS SEASON: 70-77-3 

2014-21 RECORD: 1,030-970-19

Comments
anonymous profile image
Powered by RoundtableBuilt on infrastructure designed for real-time media. Learn more at RTB.io.© Roundtable 2026. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy