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The perfect College Football Playoff structure may forever be beyond our reach.

It is to be expected after more than a century of politics, greed, incompetence and dysfunction created a sport that was unbothered by its unique inability to crown a champion without inviting controversy.

The first two incarnations of the 12-team field have demonstrated that the system still requires change, but a night like Friday is a showcase for the progress that has been achieved.

Only in college football could a town like Norman, Okla., be considered the place where millions of Americans want to be, hosting a battle of blue bloods in a first-round matchup between No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 9 Alabama.

The case can easily be made that the Crimson Tide, the only three-loss team in playoff history, don’t belong here despite beating four ranked teams — including Georgia’s only loss — but there would have been no debate without a fluky 23-21 loss to the Sooners, who scored only one offensive touchdown at Alabama and were outgained by nearly 200 yards.


  Oklahoma QB John Mateer before a November game against LSU. AP Oklahoma QB John Mateer before a November game against LSU. AP

If you watched that game, the superior team was clear. 

But it wasn’t an isolated event for Oklahoma, which has enjoyed a run filled with good fortune, and carried the nation’s 91st-ranked offense — which has averaged less than 17 points in its past three games — into the bracket.

But the Sooners can’t expect to beat Alabama (+1.5) for a second time with one hand tied behind their back.

Playoff: Miami (+3.5) over TEXAS A&M

The Hurricanes (+2,500 title odds) are the most enticing long shot on the board, with the talent to knock off any team in the nation. Even if A&M wasn’t facing the Canes’ elite pressure, it would be tough to trust Marcel Reed, who has thrown six interceptions in his past four power conference games.

Playoff: Tulane (+17.5) over OLE MISS

It can’t go any worse for the Green Wave, who dropped a 45-10 decision in Oxford earlier this season. The Rebels should have no trouble advancing, but don’t expect another early knockout given the uncertain effect of Lane Kiffin’s departure, the potential to look past Tulane and Ole Miss’ string of near-upsets against inferior opponents.

Playoff: OREGON (-20.5) over James Madison

The Dukes — who lost by 14 against their only power conference opponent (Louisville) — rely on the run and average more than 240 yards per game on the ground, but they will have no choice to abandon it to make a comeback against the nation’s No. 2 defense. James Madison has no chance of slowing Dante Moore and has no business being in the field, stealing the spot of at least a dozen more deserving teams due to the ACC’s ineptitude.


  Oregon head coach Dan Lanning. Getty Images Oregon head coach Dan Lanning. Getty Images

Myrtle Beach: Kennesaw State (+3.5) over Western Michigan

The Owls, who won the Conference USA Championship after going 2-10 last season, are appearing in their first bowl game, playing relatively close to home and are 10-1 against teams outside power conferences. 

Gasparilla: Memphis (+3.5) over N.C. State

The points feel free in a coin-flip matchup. The Tigers’ 17th-ranked offense (averaging over 33 points per game) should have little trouble lighting up the Wolfpack defense, which allowed over 35 points per game against eight opponents with a winning record. N.C. State coach Dave Doeren has lost five straight bowl games.


  NC State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren looks on against Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Sam Navarro-Imagn Images NC State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren looks on against Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Famous Idaho Potato: Washington State (+1.5) over Utah State

The Cougars have noteworthy wins (San Diego State, Toledo) but have arguably been even better in a string of recent road losses — decided by an average of three points — to a pair of playoff teams (Ole Miss, James Madison) and an ACC title game participant (Virginia). The departure of coach Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State doesn’t erase Washington State’s on-field advantages. Utah State’s Bronco Mendenhall is 1-5 in his past six bowl games.

Boca Raton: Louisville (-6.5) over Toledo

The Cardinals are not only more talented and accomplished — winning at Miami, at Pittsburgh and against James Madison — but will enjoy greater continuity in this game under Jeff Brohm, who is 5-2 in bowl games. Toledo will be without most of its coaching staff, its starting quarterback and multiple starters from a fifth-ranked defense whose status was propped up by one of the nation’s softest schedules.


  Louisville Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm celebrates with Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss (7) during the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images Louisville Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm celebrates with Louisville Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss (7) during the second half against the Kentucky Wildcats at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

New Orleans: Southern Miss (+4.5) over Western Kentucky

Charles Huff left the Golden Eagles to become Memphis’ head coach, but the job’s not finished (© Kobe Bryant) for a team that went 5-2 against bowl teams and is looking to cap its improbable turnaround from last year’s 1-11 campaign. 

Frisco: UNLV (-6.5) Ohio

Players can no longer be surprised if a head coach jumps for a better job before a bowl game, but the Bobcats were thrown the curveball of their coach, Brian Smith, being fired for “serious professional misconduct” less than a week before this game. Dan Mullen is 7-3 in bowl games, and leads a top-15 offense, averaging nearly 36 points per game.

Hawaii: Hawaii (+1.5) over California

Home field is enough to swing this shootout, with the Rainbow Warriors holding a 6-1 record on Oahu. Cal hasn’t won back-to-back games since September, lost by 21 to Stanford — which lost to Hawaii in the season-opener — and is 2-3 in its past five road games.


  Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele #3 of the California Golden Bears looks to pass against the Southern Methodist University Mustangs in the first half at California Memorial Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Berkeley, California. Getty Images Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele #3 of the California Golden Bears looks to pass against the Southern Methodist University Mustangs in the first half at California Memorial Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Berkeley, California. Getty Images

GameAbove Sports: Northwestern (-10.5) over Central Michigan

The Chippewas can’t win a rock fight against a better team that’s spent years grinding down Big Ten programs. Central Michigan went winless against the top four defenses it faced, losing by an average of more than 27 points.

Rate: Minnesota (-2.5) over New Mexico

First-year Lobos coach Jason Eck will be matched up against P.J. Fleck, the king of meaningless bowls. The Golden Gophers coach is unbeaten (6-0) in such games at Minnesota.

First Responder: FIU (+6.5) over UTSA

Never back a coach (Jeff Traylor) who describes his team as a “shell of themselves” following the departures of as many as 20 players.


  Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi argues a call during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Miami, Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025, in Pittsburgh. AP Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi argues a call during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Miami, Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025, in Pittsburgh. AP

Military: East Carolina (+9.5) over Pittsburgh

It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Panthers struggle to get up for a late-morning kickoff against a mid-major team in a half-empty stadium. Pat Narduzzi is 2-5 in bowl games.

Pinstripe: Penn State (+3.5) over Clemson

In a battle of perhaps the two most disappointing teams in the nation, it is unclear if either side will show up, with star power missing from both sides due to injuries, the transfer portal and draft preparation. Take the points given the unpredictability, especially with Clemson playing its first true cold-weather game in years.

Fenway: Army (-10) over UConn

Unlike most programs, the Black Knights don’t have to worry about roster upheaval before the season is done, allowing Jeff Monken to win five of six bowl appearances. The Huskies will be unrecognizable following the departures of coach Jim Mora Jr. and numerous starters — including a star quarterback (Joe Fagnano), receiver (Skyler Bell) and multiple offensive linemen.


  BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake calls a time out against the Utah Utes during the second quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Rob Gray-Imagn Images BYU Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake calls a time out against the Utah Utes during the second quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Pop-Tarts: Georgia Tech (+4.5) over BYU

I don’t feel great about fading the Cougars — whose only losses came to the No. 4 team in the nation — but motivation may be hard to find after barely missing out on the playoff. Though BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier may not be at full strength, the Yellow Jackets — who are 3-0 against the spread as an underdog — can expect the best out of do-everything leader Haynes King in his final game.

Arizona: Fresno State (-4.5) over Miami (Ohio)

Chuck Martin’s crew would have struggled to score against the Bulldogs’ top-15 defense under any circumstances. But the task now seems impossible, with one of the Redhawks’ uninspiring quarterback options forced to play without their star receiver and top offensive tackle.


  North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) looks to throw against Tulane during the first half of the American Conference championship NCAA college football game in New Orleans, Friday, Dec. 5, 2025. AP North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) looks to throw against Tulane during the first half of the American Conference championship NCAA college football game in New Orleans, Friday, Dec. 5, 2025. AP

New Mexico: North Texas (-3) over San Diego State

In a matchup of the Mean Green’s top-ranked offense against the Aztecs’ top-five defense, North Texas has the edge, having passed significantly tougher tests than its counterpart. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has millions of reasons to be at his best, with the nation’s passing leader expected to enter the transfer portal after the game.

Gator: Missouri (-4.5) over Virginia

The Cavaliers blew a generational opportunity to make the playoff in a down year for the ACC. The Tigers — who own the nation’s seventh-ranked defense — haven’t lost to a team outside the top 10 and have won their past two bowl games.


  Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman (1) in action during the second half against the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium. Chris Jones-Imagn Images Houston Cougars quarterback Conner Weigman (1) in action during the second half against the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium. Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Texas: LSU (+3) over Houston

Lane Kiffin won’t be on the sideline, but he will be watching the Tigers, who take the field having much to prove to the new regime. The Cougars have lost two of their past four games, while quarterback Connor Weigman was picked off seven times. Now, LSU arrives with a defense that ranks in the top 10 in interceptions.

Birmingham: Appalachian State (+7.5) over Georgia Southern

Non-playoff bowl games are often decided by which team wants to be on the field more. The answer isn’t hard to uncover here given the Mountaineers’ (5-7) acceptance of a bowl invitation rebuffed by several schools. Georgia Southern won last month’s meeting, 25-23, and hasn’t won by more than one possession since mid-October.


  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs quarterback Trey Kukuk (2) throws a pass against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. James Snook-Imagn Images Louisiana Tech Bulldogs quarterback Trey Kukuk (2) throws a pass against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. James Snook-Imagn Images

Independence: Louisiana Tech (-8.5) over Coastal Carolina

The Chanticleers are in shambles, having lost three straight games by a combined 98 points, leading to the firing of head coach Tim Beck. Tech quarterback Trey Kukuk has rushed for 315 yards and five touchdowns in his past two starts. He now faces the nation’s fourth-worst run defense.

Music City: Illinois (+2.5) over Tennessee

The Illini’s playoff sleeper campaign began one year ago with a Citrus Bowl upset of South Carolina. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Bret Bielema’s team land another uppercut against the SEC, represented by a Tennessee team that went 0-4 against teams with a winning record. Illinois’ only losses came to top-25 defenses. The Vols defense ranks 98th nationally.

Betting on College Football?

Alamo: USC (-3.5) over TCU

The Trojans could be without as many as nine starters, but that has already been factored in, dropping the line by three points. Lincoln Riley has never come through in the playoff, but he’s captured back-to-back mid-level bowls. TCU will be without offensive coordinator Kendal Briles, who took the same job at South Carolina.

BEST BETS: Alabama, Miami, Memphis, Louisville

SEASON: 104-120 (16-29) (entering Thursday)

2014-24 RECORD: 1,392-1,309-31

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