Commercial content 21+.

The biggest headliner for NFL Week 16 got a little more dramatic – and less exciting – when it was announced earlier this week that former MVP favorite Jalen Hurts (shoulder) would sit out in the Eagles’ divisional clash with the rival Cowboys.

News of his potential injury originally boosted Dallas to nearly a touchdown favorite, though this line has dropped a couple of points as kickoff nears. Can Philly keep its winning ways intact without its superstar quarterback?

Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest, which kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox.

What originally profiled as one of the best matchups of the entire NFL season is shaping up to be much less compelling with Hurts ruled out for Saturday’s contest. But his injury doesn’t entirely reshape the betting approach for this game.

Before news of his injury, Philadelphia presented as an excellent value as a short road underdog. The Eagles have been arguably the best team all season long, as evidenced by their league-best point differential (+143) and elite marks in DVOA (second) and net yards per play (second), and they’ve been favored in all 14 of their games to this point.

They also match up well with their division rivals, who have struggled to overcome mediocre competition in the last two weeks. The Cowboys are at their best when controlling the run game offensively, but Philly has shored up its run defense over the last month. That’ll force Dallas to win through the air, which could prove problematic – Dak Prescott has thrown seven interceptions over his last four starts, and the Eagles lead the league in interceptions (15).

We saw that particular element define the last meeting between these two teams in Week 6, when Philadelphia picked off three passes from Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush in a rather comfortable 26-17 win. Of course, now the roles are reversed: Prescott is back under center for Dallas, and backup Gardner Minshew takes the reins for the visiting Eagles.

Clearly, Philly’s offense is most dangerous with the dual-threat Hurts leading the way, but Minshew is no slouch. He posted a solid 60.6 QBR in four appearances (two starts) last season for the Eagles, and he averaged 240.4 yards with 37 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions in two years as a mostly full-time starter in Jacksonville.

He’s also flanked by arguably the best offensive line in football and one of the best skill-position groups in the league. Receivers A.J. Brown (1,201 yards) and Devonta Smith (901) rank fifth and 17th in receiving yards, respectively, while Miles Sanders ranks in the top five among all running backs in rushing yards (1,110), rushing touchdowns (11) and yards per carry (5.2).

That’s to say nothing of the myriad injuries plaguing this Cowboys defense, which largely mitigates the expected drop-off from Hurts to Minshew.

Cornerbacks Anthony Brown (Achilles) and Jourdan Lewis (foot) are both out for the year, which is a dangerous reality against this deep Eagles receiving corps. Do-it-all superstar Micah Parsons (illness) is questionable, and fellow linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (neck) has already been ruled out. While Parsons’ absence would be an obvious blow, the latter is similarly costly: Dallas’ defense ranks fourth in success rate (61.5%) when Vander Esch is on the field and 26th in success rate (55.8%) when he isn’t.

All in all, the Eagles still feel like the value play here even with Hurts on the sidelines. The Cowboys have been worryingly sluggish against opponents much worse than Philadelphia, and I’d expect Minshew to make the most of the elite talent around him against a short-handed rival.