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Our NFL betting writer offers best betting picks and predictions for Sunday’s game between the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans, scheduled to air live at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.
A one-way pendulum type of setup awaits the Texans and Cowboys. Dallas is steamrolling the competition, and the Texans have six double-digit losses this season with a virtual lock on the No. 1 overall draft pick.
Below we break down the battle for Texas…
Cowboys vs. Texans picks
- Cowboys cover first-quarter spread (-4) at -119 with Caesars Sportsbook
- Both teams to score 10 total points or more (No) at +140 with Caesars Sportsbook
- Dallas defense to score TD at +380 with Caesars Sportsbook
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CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys Getty ImagesCowboys vs. Texans predictions and analysis
Dallas is 5-1 and averaging 37.2 points per game — best in the league during that span — since Dak Prescott returned from a thumb injury. The Cowboys have averaged 411 yards per game during that stretch, behind only the Chiefs, and could get top offensive lineman Tyron Smith back from a knee injury this week.
There is no cavalry moment coming for the Texans, who turn the offense back over to second-year quarterback Davis Mills. Houston is averaging 13 points per game over its past three games. The Texans are 0-3 in those games, falling by an average of 13.75 points.
Cowboys -4 first quarter
The Cowboys are second in the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin and without self-inflicted wounds to start the game, it shouldn’t take long for Dallas to distance itself from the Houston Texans.
The Texans have 20 turnovers this season and the scripted offense in the first quarter has been two parts conversative and one part take cover. Houston has just 20 total points in the first quarter, while Dallas has 31 first-quarter points in its past five games alone.
A single-digit spread here — not to mention less than a full touchdown — is a holiday gift.
Pick: Cowboys cover first quarter spread -4
Houston Texans quarterback Kyle Allen (3) hands off to Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesBoth teams to score 10 (no) +140
Houston’s ineptitude can be spelled out in statistics and rankings, but one factor that has been a crippling weakness in the second half of the season: third-down offense. The Texans fail to string together drives with the combination of limited first-down production and poor success rate on longer down-and-distances.
Houston has only 11 third-down conversions in 73 attempts the past five games. The Texans have scored more than 20 points just one time this season and could be headed for a shutout.
Dallas? The Cowboys converted 26 of 41 third-down tries in the past three games, when they’re averaging 40.75 points per game.
Pick: Both teams to score 10 points (No)
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Cowboys anytime defensive touchdown +380 (Caesars)
Dallas sees blood in the water with Mills averaging 2.8 QB sacks against in 10 games in 2022. An early commitment to the passing game to avoid early blowout territory equates to forced throws, and Mills faces a salivating Cowboys’ secondary that should benefit from a league-best pass rush (48 sacks).
With 11 fumble recoveries and 10 interceptions, the Cowboys’ defense is set to pounce and pose in the endzone with a TD score on Sunday.
Pick: Cowboys defensive TD
Cowboys vs. Texans odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, accurate at the time of publishing, subject to change.
