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Before the Cubs and Cardinals meet for the second game of a three-game series, Collin Whitchurch of The Action Network is here to share his best bet (video above).
The visiting Cubs will send left-hander Justin Steele to the mound Wednesday, while St. Louis is opting for right-hander Miles Mikolas at Busch Stadium.
For Whitchurch, he believes Steele is a quality starting pitcher who is worth backing as a big underdog.
“[Steele is] sitting with a 3.86 ERA,” Whitchurch says. “That’s a very deserved number as he has a 3.72 xERA and a 3.88 xFIP.”
Additionally, the southpaw keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate. Entering Wednesday’s start, Steele’s ground-ball rate sits above 50 percent on the season.
Plus, Whitchurch expects some positive regression for Steele as he’s allowing a .311 batting average on balls in play. However, with his high ground-ball percentage, Whitchurch believes that figure is unsustainable.
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On the flip-side, Cardinals starter Mikolas arrives with a “sparkling” 2.86 ERA, but Whitchurch expects negative regression. Entering this start, his xERA sits at 3.62 and his xFIP sits at 3.86.
Miles Mikolas USA TODAY SportsBased on the fact Steele and Mikolas are relatively equal on the expected indicators, Whitchurch sees overall value on the Cubs.
As a result, he’s recommending backing the Cubs, who claimed last night’s game 6-0, on the moneyline at +145.
Cubs vs. Cardinals MLB pick today
Cubs +145 (BetMGM)
