Commercial Content 21+
Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more.
Tuesday’s battle between the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs won’t exactly be a ratings bonanza, but over the course of a long, grueling MLB season these easy to overlook games often provide bettors with decent opportunities.
As expected, the first third of this season has been a bit of a drag for the Cubs. Chicago checks into Camden Yards with a 23-32 record and 9.5 games separating them from the top of the NL Central. The North Siders are seven games out of the Wild Card picture, as well.
Cubs vs. Orioles odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: CHC -1.5 (+140) vs. BAL +1.5 (-165)
Moneyline: CHC (-115) vs. BAL (-105)
Total: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Cubs vs. Orioles probable pitchers
Keegan Thompson (1.99) vs. Kyle Bradish (6.82)
Kyle Bradish Getty ImagesCubs vs. Orioles prediction
While Chicago’s offense has been decent relative to its place in the standings, the pitching staff has struggled to a 4.30 ERA, which is the sixth-worst mark in the MLB. However, the Cubs will turn to one of the staff’s bright spots, Keegan Thompson, on Tuesday.
Thompson has posted a 1.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 45.1 innings in 2022, though a lot of his work has been done as a long reliever. And even though Thompson’s underlying metrics, like his 3.21 xERA and 3.95 xFIP point to some regression, his ability to limit hard contact should help keep that in check. According to Baseball Savant, Thompson ranks in the 87th percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage, so he doesn’t need to overpower lineups to have success.
And it’s not like Thompson will be facing a robust lineup on Tuesday, either. The Orioles rank 23rd in wOBA and 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Keegan Thompson Getty ImagesThompson should also have plenty of rope to work with at Camden Yards as his counterpart, Kyle Bradish, has struggled in his rookie campaign. Although Bradish has been a bit unfortunate, even some positive regression from his 6.82 ERA to his 5.57 xERA won’t turn him into anything special. Bradish is giving up a ton of hard contact, sitting in the third percentile in Exit Velocity, and 15th percentile in Hard-Hit Percentage.
Bradish’s last four starts have been particularly ugly, allowing 17 earned runs on 25 hits and five home runs over 16 innings pitched.
Neither Keegan Thompson nor Kyle Bradish is a household name, but there’s a clear A-side to this pitching matchup and that’s enough to act on the Cubs as a slight favorite on the road.
Cubs vs. Orioles pick
Cubs -115 (BetMGM)
