Red Sox hitters dominated right-handed pitching to the tune of a .349 weighted on-base average this season, the best in baseball. But, against left-handed hitting, they recorded a pedestrian .313 wOBA (18th-best in MLB).

Enter lefty Astros starter Dallas Keuchel, who beat the Red Sox in Game 2 of the American League Division Series last season, giving up three hits and only one earned run over 5 ²/₃ innings. Keuchel has been solid on baseball’s biggest stage, posting a 3.28 ERA in nine career postseason outings. The Astros’ bullpen is well-rested, and while the Sox may be gaining confidence in their relievers, their bridge from starter to closer Craig Kimbrel remains untrustworthy.

The Astros offense has no quit in it, and given the affordable price in them in Game 3, it triggers a bet.

The play: Astros, -130, over Red Sox in Game 3.