The biggest Daytona 500 storyline so far has been the significant odds movement on drivers who were previously considered long shots at the start of Speedweeks.

Michael McDowell, the defending Daytona 500 champion, opened the week with 60-1 odds to repeat as the race winner. But after finishing second in his Duel race on Thursday night, McDowell is now down to 28/1. Similarly, fellow Ford driver and NASCAR Cup Series rookie Harrison Burton has shot from 80/1 to 50/1 after finishing one spot behind McDowell in the Duel.

But the lower value now available for longer shots has resulted in some mid-tier drivers actually becoming smarter bets.

For example, Christopher Bell, who had the fifth-best driver rating across the four Cup Series races at Daytona and Talladega last season, was listed at 25/1 earlier this week. But even after a solid fifth-place finish in his Duel race, Bell’s price has ticked down to 30/1 at DraftKings and to 33/1 at BetMGM for the Daytona 500.

Based on Bell’s performance last season at superspeedways such as Daytona, his solid finish in Thursday’s Duel and the fact that he drives for powerhouse team Joe Gibbs Racing, I cannot fathom why his odds have dropped except as a reaction to risers such as McDowell and Burton.

If sportsbooks need to sell on Bell a bit to make room for others, that instantly sets off value-bet alarm bells and signifies that now is the time to buy for the Daytona 500.

As bettors, we cannot always predict what will happen on the field, court, pitch or race track, but we can control the odds at which we bet. And for that reason, Bell at 33/1 is a fine bet for the Daytona 500.

The play: Christopher Bell, 33/1.