Deck the halls with wall-to-wall basketball.
The NBA acknowledges players sacrificing time with their families to play on Christmas Day and generally softens the schedule around the big day for participating teams. There are five games on Tuesday’s all-day TV schedule. The whole league was off Christmas Eve and none of the 10 teams in action today will have to deal with back-to-backs on Wednesday.
That “full focus” dynamic is one handicappers should look for all through the regular season to get the best read on team quality. There are actually only three types of games on any team’s schedule:
- Night one of a back-to-back
- Night two of a back-to-back
- Isolated between off days
If you look at a schedule for your favorite team. That’s what you’ll see. The “orphans” jump out because they’re not paired off. These games will be relatively devoid of distractions, key players taking a day off to rest or coaching strategies meant to keep a team fresh for 96 minutes over two consecutive nights.
Obviously, if both teams in any given game are in that kind of slot, you’re going to get the best possible read for each at peak focus. Nobody’s pacing themselves early in a back-to-back. Nobody’s tired at the end of a back-to-back. Everybody’s focused on getting a result that game.
Whether you’re studying stats, trends, or just going by the eye test, the influence of back-to-backs can poison your reads. Is a “hot” team really improving? Or, are they getting a temporary string of “full focus” spots against tired foes or opponents who are pacing themselves?
Today’s Bet Smart “gift” from VSiN is a handicapping strategy for the rest of the NBA season. When you peruse the schedule each day, put a “B1” next to any team playing on the first night of a back-to-back. Put a “B2” next to any team playing on the second night. Put a “FF” for “full focus” next to any team that was off the prior night, and off again the following night.
Just doing that will help you see the schedule in a new light. Then, focusing your analytical efforts on any game where both teams show “FF” will let you get the cleanest reads moving forward. Teams who get the job done when focused versus focused opponents can probably be trusted to do so when healthy all season. But, teams who struggle when there aren’t fatigue implications are likely to be money burners. What’s going to happen when they get tired, or run into an opponent that really needs the game?
Have a great holiday. Let’s all hope for some Christmas illumination.
