Wednesday kicks off a new stage in the college football bowl season.
Pre-Christmas, the vast majority of teams represented “Group of Five” conferences (American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt). From this point forward, participants will mostly be from the “Power Five” leagues (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC).
Thus far, advantages at the point of attack have ruled the day. Favorites generally have the better athletes up front. They are 11-3 straight up, 10-3-1 against the spread. Nine of the 10 covering favorites even beat the spread by double digits!
- Teams with superior yards-per-play are 13-1 straight up, 13-0-1 ATS, with 10 favorites able to manage advantages of greater than 1.0 yard per play, eight greater than 2.0 yards per play.
- Teams with the most rushing yards are 11-3 straight up, 10-3-1 ATS, with some startling blowouts (Army outrushed Houston 507-87, Tulane outrushed Louisiana 337-84, underdog FIU outrushed Toledo 236-134 to name a few).
- Following up on last week’s discussion on conferences, the MAC may have been way overpriced. That conference went 1-5 straight up, 1-4-1 ATS, and had two of the three favorites that lost outright — Toledo and Buffalo. The only team with superior YPP to lose a bowl straight up was Eastern Michigan.
Are there reasons why “point of attack” football may be a better indicator now than in the past for handicapping success in bowls?
Among the possibilities:
- There are fewer special-teams touchdowns because kickoffs can be fair caught to start a drive at the 25-yard line, and because “rugby-style” punts are tougher to catch clean and return the distance.
- An emphasis on “dink and dunk” passing attacks across the sport has cut down on turnover volatility. Offenses that can successfully mix rushing with short passing can drive the field safely.
- Losing offenses that use “dink and dunk” aren’t very good at playing catch-up, which makes it difficult for the less physical team to rally from deficits.
Few bettors are yelling “Turnovers are killing me!” They’re barely a factor so far. Losing bettors are yelling “Why can’t I get a stop?!” before giving up and changing the channel in the third quarter.
Will this week’s bowl slate feature more of the same? It’s not like the lesser leagues have a monopoly on “dink and dunk,” or the big boys haven’t heard about “staying ahead of the chains.”
If you’re trying to pick winners, it wouldn’t hurt to refresh your memories about point-of-attack strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball. That element may not continue cashing at its current pace. But, it’s going to matter in games featuring efficient favorites facing ’dogs who aren’t very good at playing catch-up.
