The 2019 debut of ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” will feature a matchup of great interest to Mets fans. Defending NL East champion Atlanta will visit projected NL East winner Philadelphia at 7 p.m.

Bryce Harper’s well-publicized signing with the Phillies during the offseason created a mini-storm in betting circles. Philadelphia rose to second favorite to win the National League at 11/2, behind the Dodgers. The Phils also entered the season 11/1 to win the championship.
Atlanta was largely ignored by the mainstream media through the offseason, despite reaching the playoffs with a 90-win campaign in 2018. You’d have thought the Braves were about to fall back to the bottom of the division as part of the tank brigade.

Betting markets still respect the Braves as a potential contender. The Braves entered the season 10/1 to win the National League, and 20/1 to win the World Series.

Closing “Regular Season Win Totals” suggested a tight race in the NL East. Philadelphia was slightly ahead of prior power Washington, both in the 88-89 range depending on the betting shop. Atlanta was just behind near 86 wins, the Mets near 85. The Marlins trailed the field substantially, with an estimate of just 63 victories.

The problem there is the market may be accounting for too much improvement…

2018 NL East standings

Team Record
Atlanta: 90-72
Washington: 82-80
Philadelphia: 80-82
Mets: 77-85
Miami: 63-98

So … the Marlins are going to stay the same … the Braves are going to get a few games worse … but the Phillies, Nationals, and Mets are all going to win 7-10 more games? While playing division-heavy schedules against each other?

It’s possible the NL East will feature an exciting, four-team race that goes right down to the wire, but more likely there will be at least one good surprise (a team making a run at 95-100 wins) and at least one bad surprise (a team sinking below the .500 mark). Handicappers and bettors should keep an eye out in early season performance for indicators that will hint at those surprises.

You don’t make money as a bettor asking the “expected” to happen. Markets price on expectations. Sharps make their living by developing a better read on reality before oddsmakers and the masses.

NL East analysts were fortunate to see head-to-head battles out of the gate with Mets-Nats and Braves-Phillies this weekend. Others coming up soon that will assist evaluative efforts …

VSiN will talk more about baseball in the coming weeks, including a discussion Monday on the difficulties of handicapping during an evolution in the use of starting pitchers. Amid analysis of college basketball’s Final Four, and the playoff chases in the NBA and NHL, we’ll catch up with the Yankees early next week in a high profile potential playoff preview against the Astros.

It’s a great time of the year to be a sports bettor.