Coach Bruce Arians has been the quarterback whisperer for young players — see Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck — and has shown he can revitalize a veteran’s career like he did for Carson Palmer in Arizona. Tampa Bay has brought him in to do the same with Jameis Winston, who is in the final year of his contract.
Arians was in the booth last season calling games for CBS after he stepped away from the sideline with high blood pressure, having also overcome cancer in 2017. He appears ready for a new challenge with a lot of new personnel. Unlike former Bucs coach Dirk Koetter, who preached ball security and risk management, Arians will let Winston grip it and rip it. Winston will likely see increases in passing yards and touchdowns, but also has the chance to turn the ball over at a greater pace than in his first four seasons — 76 times, including 58 interceptions.
Winston has lost his job twice, once for an off-field incident, to Ryan Fitzpatrick last season. Still, Tampa Bay should be able to put up big numbers offensively. The last two teams Arians coached in Arizona ranked second and fifth in most offensive snaps per game. The question is whether the Bucs can stop anyone. They ranked in the bottom seven in total yards allowed per game and passing yards per game.
Tampa Bay was also dead last in defensive efficiency in the past two seasons. Todd Bowles, fired as Jets head coach last season, comes in as defensive coordinator to reunite with Arians. Bowles was Arians’ DC in Arizona, where he was named NFL Assistant Coach of the Year in 2014. He has his work cut out for him with this group.
The Bucs open with two of three games at home and close the season with consecutive home games, while the middle of the schedule could prove brutal. They do not play a game at home from Sept. 23 to Nov. 10. The stretch, interrupted by a bye week, includes games at the Rams and New Orleans, followed by Carolina in London, then at Tennessee and Seattle. With a team that’s still low on talent, especially on defense, and a quarterback that has yet to prove he can resolve his turnover issues, it’s difficult to see much improvement in the first year even with an upgrade at head coach.
The Play: Under 6 ¹/₂ wins (-120 at William Hill).
