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Everton Football Club has played in England’s first division since 1954. Even though they haven’t won any major silverware since 1995 and have one top-four finish since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, it’s hard to imagine the EPL without the Toffees. But it doesn’t matter how much history a club has or how famous it is, if you finish in the bottom three places in the Premier League you get sent down to the Championship. And Everton are teetering on the edge with eight games to go.

Currently, in 17th place, Everton is just three points above the drop zone with one game in hand on 18th-place Burnley. The bookmakers have Everton at +250 to be relegated, while the Clarets are -300. While those odds do imply that Burnley has a 75 percent chance of being relegated, it’s definitely not a done deal, especially since Everton has to play Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal, while six of Burnley’s seven remaining fixtures are against teams between eighth and 19th-place.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: Everton: +135 | Tie +225 | Leicester City: +200

Total: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-125)

Every match at this point of a relegation battle is a “must-win” game, but Wednesday’s showdown with Leicester City at Goodison Park is one of Everton’s best remaining opportunities to pick up three points and put some distance between them and their relegation foes.

That may sound off since Leicester is in ninth-place and 12 points ahead of Everton, but the truth is that these two teams are a lot closer than the surface-level stats make them out to be. Through 30 matches this season Everton has posted a -0.31 expected goals (xG) differential per 90 minutes. Leicester is actually a tad behind the Toffees at -0.34. According to Understat’s expected points (xPoints) statistic, Leicester and Everton are basically equaled, with the Foxes sitting on 32.74 xPoints and the Toffees at 33.74.

In other words, this is a showdown between two significantly flawed teams disguised as a match featuring one terrible team and a mediocre one.

And while both of these teams have serious issues defensively, Everton has started to look better in that regard and is getting their best defender, Yerry Mina, back after a long absence. Even without Mina and playing with a makeshift back-line and midfield, Everton have held their last four opponents (Man City, Newcastle, Wolves and Manchester United) at Goodison Park to just 3.1 expected goals combined. With Mina, Fabian Delph and Allan all back and healthy, this should be a well-organized defensive unit.

The same can’t really be said of Leicester, who have somehow managed to only allow seven goals in their last seven matches, despite giving up 1.82 xG per match. Defensive regression should be coming for the Foxes.

There are plenty of signals pointing to Everton in this match. The Toffees are getting healthy, they’re in good home form and they are in a very advantageous schedule spot coming off 10 days rest, while Leicester is playing their fifth game in 13 days.

The bet: Everton +125 or better (+155 via Caesars Sportsbook)