A few months ago you’d have thought the stakes for Thursday’s match between Everton and Newcastle would have been reversed. Around Christmastime it looked like Newcastle was going to spend the season in a relegation scrap, while Everton would be a flawed team, but still sit comfortably above the drop-zone.

Now, the opposite is true. Everton has two wins, three draws and 15 losses over their last 20 matches and is now +200 to be relegated, while Newcastle has only lost once in their last 10 matches and has a plus-7 goal differential in that span.

The underlying metrics do suggest some regression is coming for the Magpies, as Newcastle’s 11.52 expected goals allowed over its last 10 games outpaces the seven goals they have actually allowed. Still, it’s a remarkable improvement for a side that was one of the worst defensive units in the Premier League before Eddie Howe – who is not known for his defensive acumen – arrived on Tyneside.

On the contrary, poor defense is holding Everton back. The Toffees have plenty of scoring and play-making talent up front with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, Anthony Gordon, Demarai Gray and Donny van de Beek, but the defense has been abysmal with Yerry Mina on the sidelines. Michael Keane and Mason Holgate have struggled mightily at center-back, while Seamus Coleman and Jonjoe Kenny aren’t able to keep up at fullback.

Kenny will be suspended for this match, and that could end up being addition by subtraction. Frank Lampard could inject some youth into his backline with Nathan Patterson, Vitaliy Mykolenko, Ben Godfrey and Jarrad Branthwaite all available. Should Lampard elect to start a couple of his up-and-comers, we could see an improved performance defensively, as it’s clear things can’t get much worse.

Just as important for Lampard will be his decision in the midfield. Everton looked decent value when they played three in the midfield against Manchester City a couple weeks ago, but for some reason that tactic had been binned for Everton’s loss against Wolves. Predictably, Wolverhampton dominated the middle of the park en route to an easy 1-0 win.

Betting on Everton to beat Newcastle is an ugly proposition given each club’s current form, but one of the most important practices in betting is learning when to buy low and sell high.

At +140, the bookmakers are implying that Everton have roughly a 41.7% chance of winning this match. Even in their current form, that is probably a little bit low, given the talent gap between these two sides is not that wide and the Toffees are at home. Buy low on Everton at +130 or better.