Want even more betting news? Sign up for VSiN’s free daily newsletter. Listen Live to VSiN’s sports betting shows.
LAS VEGAS — It looked like a miracle from above. Derek Carr lofted a pass that dropped from the sky and landed in the hands of Henry Ruggs for the winning 46-yard touchdown with five seconds remaining.
The Raiders’ playoff hopes stayed alive with a wild 31-28 victory over the hapless Jets, who stayed winless (0-12) and on track to land the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. So was it a miracle or something mysterious?
Those with a fascination for conspiracy theories — the betting public included — immediately jumped to conclusions Sunday as the Raiders celebrated their improbable road win.
The theory is the Jets’ coaching staff, specifically defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, wanted to lose the game and tank for the top draft pick. Williams called an all-out blitz that left a rookie cornerback in single coverage against Ruggs, one of the fastest receivers in the league. Essentially, sending eight defenders at Carr instead of sitting back in a deep prevent defense was the only way the Jets could lose.
“No, I don’t buy the conspiracy,” said VSiN’s Brent Musburger, the radio play-by-play voice of the Raiders. “I always think tanking is strictly for fans and the media, and athletes don’t go for that.”
But what about coaches, and does the front office go for tanking? It could be argued Adam Gase still is the head coach and Williams, who was fired Monday, still was calling the defense because Jets ownership surmised that sticking with the clumsy Gase-Williams duo was a way to keep the team winless and on the path to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who could change the franchise’s direction for the next decade. That theory makes some sense.
Henry Ruggs catches the game-winning touchdown against Lamar Jackson. APMusburger said it makes no sense the coaches, who surely expected to be fired soon, care enough about the No. 1 pick to go 0-16. It also makes no sense the players want to lose, and proof was in the Jets’ defensive stop on fourth down previous to the Raiders’ final drive.
The Raiders were 7.5-point favorites and attracted heavy betting action, especially on six-point teasers and on the moneyline (-400 at BetMGM) to win outright. Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said a Jets victory could have produced the biggest single-game win of the NFL season for his book, so everyone can rule out a Vegas conspiracy.
“We certainly did well and won money on the day, but we could have done so much better if the Raiders had lost,” Murray said. “The Jets purposely giving up the touchdown is disappointing. The players obviously don’t want to lose the game. The Raiders still had to execute the play, so give them credit for that. But I don’t know how you could explain that [blitz call] other than they were trying to lose. It’s unreal. No coach could be that dumb.”
Because the Raiders trailed by four points and had no timeouts left, Musburger said he was “stunned” by Williams’ decision to blitz.
“Gregg Williams is going to suffer for that play call because he left his secondary out to dry,” Musburger said. “I know that conspiracy theory is going to be out there, but professional athletes still want to win the game. It was a terrible defense to use in that situation. Williams is a pressure defensive coach and he’s going to bring it. He’s the bounty hunter, he was going after Carr, and he paid a tremendous price.”
VSiN analyst Michael Lombardi pinned the Jets’ loss on “coaching malpractice to the highest level” by Williams.
“That was Williams being arrogant,” Lombardi said. “He should have been fired in the locker room. That loss belongs on one man. It’s ridiculous that Gase allowed that call to happen. It’s horrible. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s a false narrative. It has nothing to do with Trevor Lawrence. The Jets were trying to win the game.”
When handicapping the NFL, bettors would be wise to hunt for coaching mismatches, and there were two obvious such situations Sunday.
Bill Belichick faced Anthony Lynn in Los Angeles, where the Chargers closed as small favorites yet the Patriots rolled 45-0.
“We had sharp guys betting the Chargers -1.5,” Murray said in a tone of disbelief. “It was a hilarious game. It was like Anthony Lynn gave you a manual on how not to coach the game.”
Sean McVay faced Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona, where the Rams won 38-28 as 3-point favorites. McVay improved to 7-0 with six double-digit wins against the Cardinals the past three seasons.
Another profitable angle to consider is a coaching change — bet on a team the week after the coach gets fired. Houston fired Bill O’Brien after starting 0-4, and the Texans (-6.5) beat Jacksonville 30-14 the next week. Atlanta fired Dan Quinn after starting 0-5, and the Falcons (+3.5) beat Minnesota 40-23 the next week.
The angle improved to 3-0 when the Lions, 3-point underdogs, rallied to beat the Bears 34-30 in Chicago. Detroit’s players seemed to welcome the news of coach Matt Patricia getting fired after the Thanksgiving Day massacre.
Musburger said with a laugh, “If the Jets want to stay with the No. 1 pick, don’t fire Gase, because they will win next week.”





