Week by week, the tests are getting tougher for New York Giants rookie quarterback Daniel Jones.
He passed his first two with flying colors, leading victories over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins. Though, last week’s win vs. Washington was candy from a baby after the demoralized visitors threw in the towel at halftime.
Sunday, the aggressive defense of the Minnesota Vikings comes to MetLife Stadium (1 p.m., Fox). And everyone in purple is seeing red after suffering an embarrassing 16-6 loss at Chicago last week. The 2-2 Vikings can’t afford another vanquishing in their tight NFC Central race.
The Giants are also 2-2 but aren’t yet dealing with the pressure of expectations. It’s all house money at this point. Benching Eli Manning was supposed to get Big Blue ready for next season and beyond.
Betting markets still aren’t big believers in Jones. Though they didn’t price him like a hopeless project when he first took over (which has been true for some new starting quarterbacks this season), his performance still hasn’t caused a rise in their Power Ratings.
At -3, the Giants were seen as virtually even with struggling Washington last week in advance of a 24-3 laugher. The Giants likely will close around a 5- to 5¹/₂-point underdog Sunday, meaning about 8 to 8¹/₂ points worse than Minnesota on a neutral field.
Let’s see where that puts the Giants in VSiN’s estimated “market” power rankings. Each week, Jonathan Von Tobel (“The Edge”) and I put our heads together to deduce what point spreads are saying about the league’s 32-team scale:
- NFC: Rams 84, Cowboys 84, Packers 83, Bears (Chase Daniel) 83, Vikings 83, Seahawks 83, Eagles 82, 49ers 81, Falcons 80, Saints (Teddy Bridgewater) 80, Panthers (Kyle Allen) 80, Lions 79, Buccaneers 79, Giants (Jones) 75, Cardinals 74, Redskins 72.
Maybe 83 and 75 aren’t right for the Vikes and Giants. What adjustment would you make? Lifting the G-Men to 76 would require lifting the Vikings to 84 on a neutral field. Tough to do that off the Chicago game.
As we said last week, if you believe the Giants are better than market estimates, keep betting them. Jones is 2-0 against the spread as a starter, covering by 5¹/₂ and 18 points. If the Giants really are a 78 or a 79, they offer value Sunday as a home underdog.
The injury-riddled Jets are back in action after a bye, visiting Philadelphia (1 p.m., CBS). A likely closing spread near two touchdowns keeps them a distant doormat.
- AFC: Patriots 90, Chiefs 88, Ravens 84, Texans 82, Titans 81, Bills 81, Browns 80, Chargers 80, Colts 80, Jaguars (Gardner Minshew) 79, Raiders 78, Steelers (Mason Rudolph) 77, Broncos 77, Bengals 75, Jets (Luke Falk) 71, Dolphins 63.
It’s expected the Jets will jump at least a field goal when sidelined quarterback Sam Darnold is back at full strength. Keep thinking about where you’d put the Jets on that scale so you’re ready to bet smart.
