Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN.com, is in his fourth season with The Post’s Bettor’s Guide. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly.

The Bills have somehow rallied to pass the Patriots for the lead in the AFC East as Josh Allen and company are playing up to preseason expectations and how they looked early in the regular season. They shouldn’t, however, be favored by this much over this Falcons team.

Granted, Atlanta is the worst team still in the playoff hunt, but the Falcons are still here and capable of keeping within two TDs with Matt Ryan getting the most out of his best weapons, TE Kyle Pitts and RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Weather could also be a factor, with a chance of snow and temperatures in the upper 20s at game time, which tends to favor a lower-scoring game with points at a premium.

The Lions continue to cash for us as ’dogs as they’re now an unbelievably 10-5 ATS despite a 2-12-1 SU record. We lucked out on Sunday, when Dan Campbell chose to take a late field goal trailing by seven to get us the cover in a 20-16 loss to Falcons, though it again showed how this team keeps outperforming expectations, at least from an ATS perspective (which is all we care about here). We’re a little surprised this line is so high (though it was Seahawks -9 before coming down) as the Seahawks are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games and just lost 25-24 to the Bears at home. But, hey, we’ll continue to take whatever points they give us with this cover machine from the Motor City.

Last week: 1-1. Lions (W), Steelers (L)
Season: 19-13.