Commercial Content, 21+

Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Falcons vs. Buccaneers predictions and picks for their NFL Week 5 showdown, which is live Sunday on FOX at 1 p.m. ET.

A two-game slide carries Tampa into Sunday when they host the NFC South rival Falcons. The Buccaneers (2-2) began the season with two victories on the road before dropping a 14-12 decision to the visiting Green Bay Packers on Sept. 25 and a 41-31 setback at home to the Kansas City Chiefs last week. While Tampa Bay is trending in the wrong direction, Atlanta (2-2) has answered a sluggish start with back-to-back victories. The Falcons followed up a 27-23 win in Seattle with a 23-20 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

Sole possession of first place in the NFC South on the line in this matchup? Believe it.

Tampa Bay has been besieged by injuries to both the offensive line and to its wide receivers. The Buccaneers, however, appear to be getting healthier on the latter front, with the team able to utilize Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and former Falcons Russell Gage and Julio Jones in its last game.  Star quarterback Tom Brady was back at practice Thursday but has right shoulder and right finger injuries sustained in the contest against the Chiefs while delivering a 385-yard, three-touchdown performance.

Brady has shredded the Falcons in his career, winning all nine regular-season matchups by averaging 319.4 passing yards with a total of 26 touchdown passes against three interceptions. And that’s not even taking into consideration a highly publicized performance in Super Bowl LI. We’re sure Falcons fans remember that game.

Fast forward back to the present and Brady enters Sunday’s clash after playing second fiddle to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on primetime television. The 45-year-old Brady doesn’t need much more than that to serve as motivation for his next start. 

Pity the Falcons for being next on the schedule. Take the Buccaneers and don’t look back.

Our Pick: Buccaneers to cover -8.5 @ -110 at Caesars Sportsbook

Mariota has rushed 18 times for a total of 23 yards over the last three games, so why do we think he’ll eclipse that total on Sunday?

Well, the Falcons will be without Cordarrelle Patterson. They placed the dynamic running back on injured reserve with an ailing knee. Instead, Atlanta will need to rely on rookie Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley out of the backfield.

That all sounds well and good, but the Buccaneers likely will build a sizable lead and sit back defensively and force Mariota to beat them with his arm. It’s debatable if he can do that, however he will rely on his legs to keep the chains moving.

Our Pick: Marcus Mariota to rush for over 23.5 yards @ -121 at Caesars Sportsbook

The Tampa Bay defense was taken to task by Mahomes and Co. on a national stage last week. The Buccaneers yielded 41 points last Sunday night after allowing just 27 in their previous three games combined.

But that was against Mahomes. Now, Tampa Bay squares off against an Atlanta passing attack that is averaging an NFL fourth-worst 181.0 yards per game. What’s worse, Mariota is only completing 58.2 percent of his passes.

Look for a prideful Buccaneers defense to make amends after a tough showing last week, and Tampa Bay likely will make a statement early on Sunday.

Our Pick: “Punt” as the outcome of the Falcons’ first drive @ -190 at Caesars Sportsbook