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The Seahawks are favored over the Patriots by 4.5 points at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.

Both teams spent the season operating at the NFL‘s highest tier. New England arrived as the AFC’s No. 2 seed at 14-3, while Seattle matched that record and claimed the NFC’s top spot and entered the playoffs as Big Game favorites.

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Roughly 70 percent of spread tickets are on Seattle, per Action Network, a level of consensus we almost never see in the Big Game. 

Over the last 23 years, only seven teams have closed with 60 percent or more of tickets, going 5-2 both straight up and against the spread.

Only two teams have ever reached 65 percent or higher: the 2018-19 Patriots at 66 percent (won 13-3 over the Rams) and the 2013-14 Broncos at 68 percent, who remain the high-water mark — and were blown out 43-8 by these same Seahawks.

70 percent of spread tickets are on the Seahawks, a level only two teams have hit in the last 23 Super Bowls, and one of them got obliterated (Denver in 2013-14).

Heavy public love historically raises the tax on backing that side. This matchup is already strange before you even look at the line, because both teams opened the season at 60-1 or longer to win the Big Game.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.