New Jersey native Martin Truex Jr. could be headed for a second straight NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Championship, according to simulation projections for the 10-race playoff.

However, keep in mind that his team has decided to close its doors following the 2018 season, and that type of bad momentum is tough to overcome. He’ll need to have a fast start, beginning with Sunday’s South Point 400 in Las Vegas. Truex (4/1 at William Hill to win the Monster Cup) has struggled to finish races in recent weeks despite being very fast on the track.

The plays: Top shot — Kyle Busch (11/5) is good at almost every track, and is a threat to win every week. Busch has been known to string victories together, making him a legitimate threat to advance in each round of the playoffs. Should he reach Miami as one of the final four title competitors, the younger of the Busch brothers has finished 2nd, 6th, and 1st in his last three season finales.

Longer shots — Brad Keselowski (15/1) has picked it up of late and could be the hottest driver heading into the playoffs. He won the most recent two races at Indianapolis and Darlington and was second at Michigan two races prior to that. Keselowski is also a past champion that seems to have developed a chip on his shoulder from racing in the shadow of the “Big 3” this season.

Chase Elliott (15/1) is one of the series’ most popular drivers and had a string of six straight top-10 finishes before a 16th-place effort last week at the Brickyard.