The NFL is back!
The Hall of Fame Game featuring the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos kicks off at 8 p.m. Thursday night on NBC. That makes this the ideal time for VSiN to set the stage for the 2019 pro football season with an early look at estimated “market” power ratings.
If you were with us last year, you know Jonathan Von Tobel of “The Edge” (weekdays from 3-6 p.m. on VSiN.com and SiriusXM 204) and I put our heads to together to deduce how the composite sum of market influences has rated all 32 NFL teams on a neutral-field scale. We do this using point spreads, adjusting a standard three points for home-field advantage. If the home team in a regular-season game is favored by a field goal, then we consider the teams dead even.
We don’t use preseason point spreads because starters don’t see much action in August. Numbers for Week 1 of the regular season have been on the board for weeks already. Settled lines suggest the following for the NFC:
- Rams 86, Saints 86, Eagles 83, Bears 83, Seahawks 82, Cowboys 82, Vikings 82, Packers 82, Falcons 81, Panthers 80, 49ers 80, Giants 77, Redskins 77, Buccaneers 77, Lions 77, Cardinals 72.
The Giants are currently +7¹/₂ at Dallas. That means the G-Men and Cowboys should be 4-5 points apart on our scale after you deduct home field. Considering that sharp money would likely come in hard on the Cowboys at a clean -7, we put the ’Pokes at 82, the Giants at 77. It could turn out down the road that those numbers should be 83 and 78, or even 81 and 76. We’ll let future market developments determine movement.
In the AFC:
- Chiefs 86, Patriots 86, Chargers 83, Browns 83, Colts 83, Steelers 83, Texans 82, Ravens 82, Titans 81, Jaguars 79, Broncos 77, Jets 76, Bengals 76, Raiders 76, Bills 75, Dolphins 75.
The Jets are currently -3¹/₂ at home against Buffalo. Again here, the hook influences our assessment. If the teams were dead even, the line would be -3. It’s not, so we put the Jets one higher than the Bills at 76-75. There is some media optimism for both of those teams this season. Maybe 77-76 will turn out to have been a better read, or even 78-77 if everything falls right. Global futures boards are more skeptical than the media.
VSiN will update these throughout the season. And, if preseason injuries knock stars out of the September mix, we’ll update sooner.
Sharps have shown interest in the Broncos-Falcons exhibition opener. An early line of pick ’em has been driven hard all the way to Denver -3. The public doesn’t typically bet preseason action prior to game day. So we have very strong evidence that sharps like Denver at anything below a field goal.
