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The Calgary Flames are teetering at the moment.
After starting the campaign with a 5-1 record, the Flames are now 5-5-2 on the season and are 12 points behind the pace-setting Vegas Golden Knights in the Pacific Division.
Despite the slow start, the Flames are still one of the Stanley Cup favorites at +1200. The betting market is expecting Calgary to turn it around, but the Flames will be heavy underdogs to get back on track on Thursday night in Boston.
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Flames vs. Bruins odds (FanDuel)
Spread: CGY +1.5 (-150) vs. BOS -1.5 (+122)
Moneyline: CGY (+172) vs. BOS (-210)
Total: Over 6 (-118) | Under 6 (-104)
Flames vs. Bruins prediction and preview
One of the hallmarks of Darryl Sutter’s Flames is that they typically drive and play well at 5-on-5. Calgary had the best goal differential at 5-on-5 last season and ranked inside the top 5 in shot attempt rate, expected goal share, and high-danger scoring chance percentage.
Those numbers have dipped a bit out of the gates this season, but that’s to be expected as the Flames are dealing with plenty of roster turnover after losing Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk and replacing them with Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Mackenzie Weegar.
And while Calgary’s numbers are not best-in-class, they’re still pretty strong. The Flames currently rank fourth in shot attempt rate, 10th in expected goals share, and 10th in high-danger scoring chance percentage.
Generally, the Flames are tilting the ice in the right direction, but they just aren’t getting the big saves that they got from Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar in 2021-22. Calgary ranks 27th in 5-on-5 save percentage this season.
Calgary is 0-2-1 in its last three games, but if the goaltending was a little stronger, we could be talking about a three-game winning streak and the narrative would be “the Flames are back.” If that was the case, this number would be shorter.
Tyler Toffoli #73 of the Calgary Flames celebrates his goal with Rasmus Andersson #4 and Michael Stone NHLI via Getty ImagesBetting on the NHL?
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That isn’t to say the Boston Bruins aren’t a formidable opponent. The Bruins look like world-beaters with an 11-2 record and a league-leading +22 goal differential. Boston’s statistical portfolio backs up its record as they rank inside the top-7 in shot attempt share, expected goals rate, and high-danger scoring chance rate.
The Bruins are one of the best teams in the NHL, but it wasn’t too long ago that we thought the same thing about this Flames side. There are some injury concerns for Calgary (Huberdeau, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington), but Calgary is deep up front and the defense hasn’t been a huge issue.
Going into Boston is a tough spot for any team in the NHL right now, but this is a classic buy-low spot on a team that is still considered one of the best teams in the entire league.
Flames vs. Bruins pick
Flames +172 (FanDuel)
