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The Philadelphia Flyers have defied expectations this season. That may sound a bit odd, considering the Flyers have the 24th-best points percentage in the NHL as they hit the 50-game mark, but that record is actually better than what most people expected out of Philadelphia in 2022-23. 

What’s even more surprising is that the Flyers seem to be getting better as the campaign wears on. Philadelphia is 9-4-1 since the holiday break and could pull within six points of a playoff spot with a win against the Minnesota Wild on Thursday.

The oddsmakers don’t give them much of a chance, however, as the Flyers are currently sitting as a +202 underdog in Minnesota. 

There have certainly been some down moments for the Flyers in John Tortorella’s first season as head coach, but the team has impressively stabilized after the valleys. Philadelphia endured a 10-game losing streak and a 2-11-5 stretch in the first half, but since then the Flyers are a respectable 11-7-1 with a +4 goal differential.

Philadelphia’s 5-on-5 numbers are still pretty pedestrian, but that’s to be expected for a team that is lacking in talent and is relying on hard work plus solid goaltending to get the job done. Still, it’s not like the Flyers are getting played off the ice on a nightly basis and just getting lucky. Philadelphia’s expected goals rate is hovering around 50% over its last 15 games. The Flyers are doing everything they can to turn games into coin flips and hoping they get one more save or bounce than their opponents. It’s a tried and true method for teams to punch above their weight class in the NHL.

Minnesota, meanwhile, seems like a vulnerable favorite in this spot. The Wild have lost three in a row and have won just three of their last nine contests overall. Two of those three victories came against the Islanders and Coyotes and the third came against the Capitals in a game in which the Wild were badly outplayed. 

When they’re going well, the Wild are a terrific 5-on-5 team that defends as well as anybody in the league, but right now, neither of those things are true. Minnesota is giving up more scoring chances than it is conceding of late, and that’s a recipe for failure for a team that doesn’t have the scoring depth to win back-and-forth contests.

This may seem like a good ‘get-right spot’ for the Wild after they’ve skidded out of a playoff spot, but the Flyers make life miserable for their opponents, and that makes them a live underdog on Thursday night.

Flyers +202 (FanDuel)