LAS VEGAS — So you think you know the NFL?

The problem is, if you ask anyone else which sport they know the best, it’s the NFL.

The pitfall that swallows up most novice bettors is going with the obvious picks. We call them “favorites” but I’m really talking about the trendy, obvious plays where everyone jumps on the bandwagon. If you see or read that 80 percent of the action is on a team, that’s usually a good time to fade the public or at least pass.

Some examples in Week 1 are the Ravens -7 ¹/₂ over the Bills. Everyone says the Ravens are going to kill them; they’re also going to be the most popular play in survivor pools. But let the bettor beware. Another is the Rams, being bet from -1 to -4, against the Raiders on Monday night. I’m sure you’ve seen or heard this, but the Rams “won the offseason” and a lot of people believe Jon Gruden made a huge mistake in letting Khalil Mack go. We’ll see if the Ravens and Rams indeed romp, but in the long run, those are the types of “easy winners” you want to avoid like a kid with the sniffles.

Think back to all the times you’ve watched an NFL pregame show and the so-called experts (none of whom knows as much about betting as you do) all give out the same team (always the obvious favorite) and chuckle about how much of a mismatch the game is, and then they’re all eating crow after the game. It happens time and again, so don’t be one of the lemmings.

Here’s some other things I know you should know:

Do your own handicapping

Don’t follow anyone blindly (and that goes for yours truly). No one hits 60 percent over the long haul in the NFL. Sure, you can listen to knowledgeable handicappers like we have here in The New York Post and at VSiN and pick up helpful advice and useful nuggets of information, but incorporate those into your own analysis before settling on your plays each week.

Shop around

Any successful sports bettor will tell you the biggest key to success is shopping around to get the best number on the side you like. This also includes timing the market. The rule of thumb is to bet favorites early and underdogs late as that’s the way the lines tend to move (not always, as we saw the Falcons bet from +4 to -1 for the Thursday night opener.) If you see the market moving on a team you like, you need to bet ASAP; otherwise, you need to be patient to wait for the best line. If you have access to only one line, it’s even more important to monitor the market to see if you missed the best number on a game you like and have the discipline to pass as opposed to betting bad numbers that will eventually bite you in the butt and deplete your bankroll.

Diversify your portfolio

I do believe the best way to beat the NFL is with well-thought-out, disciplined plays against the point spread, but there are times to invest other ways.

Sometimes, especially when two teams’ style of play dictates, the Over/Under is the better bet. Parlays (where you have to hit multiple games but get higher payoffs) are often called sucker bets (and you do pay a higher takeout built into the odds), but they can also help you maximize your profits if you have a great weekend when you hit all your top plays. They also can give you action on lesser plays that you might not feel confident enough to bet your usual unit(s) but would give you a nice bonus if they come in.

Also consider first-half lines as a way to shorten the game. Bet the favorite here if you believe they’re primed to jump out to the early lead; or in my case, I love betting dogs in the first half if I’m afraid they might be run over late. The bonus for underdog bettors is you usually get more than half the game spread: for instance, you can take the Bills +4¹/₂ in the first half vs. the Ravens, the Texans +3¹/₂ vs. the Patriots, the Chiefs +3 (at -120) vs. the Chargers (that’s right, +3 in first half when the game line is +3¹/₂), the Jets +3¹/₂ vs. Lions and the Raiders +3 vs. the Rams.

Teasers can be pleasers

Teasers (the most common being when you move the line six points in your favor on each game) are also a sucker bet if played wrong. If played right, which means in the NFL crossing both the key numbers of 3 and 7, you’re actually using the bookmakers’ knowledge against them as the closer the games fall to their lines, the more we win. This week’s most-played teasers (and this includes the pros, not just the joes) are sure to be the Ravens from -7¹/₂ down to -1¹/₂ and the Packers down from -7¹/₂ down to -1¹/₂. If looking for teaser plays going up, take the Dolphins from +1¹/₂ to +7¹/₂ and Cowboys from +3 to +9. Like with a parlay, you have to win every part of the teaser bet to collect.

I hope this helps. We’ll see Monday if what we know worked this weekend and what we didn’t know. (Where’s Yogi when we need him!)