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After winning 107 games and an NL West title in 2021, the Giants are in third place in the division, trailing by 13 games heading into Sunday.
They sit just one game out of a wild-card spot, however, and with the All-Star break right around the corner, I’m always looking to find teams that might have a bit more at stake heading into the Midsummer Classic.
One matchup that fits that criteria is the Giants playing host to the Brewers on Sunday.
San Francisco’s Logan Webb comes into the game at 8-3 with a 2.82 ERA. His advanced numbers align favorably with his ERA, given his 3.01 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. He hasn’t allowed a home run at home.
Milwaukee’s Jason Alexander is 2-1 with a 4.73 ERA. He doesn’t seem to miss too many bats, as opposing hitters have a 92.2 percent contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone.
Moreover, Alexander’s 4.05 K/9 ratio is among the lowest I’ve seen this season.
According to our Action Labs database, the Giants are 10-9 for 4.59 units when facing a starting pitcher with a strikeout rate lower than 10 percent.
The play: Giants, -170.
