After a hot start to the season, the Giants have leveled off in recent weeks as they fight to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’ll face their toughest test yet this week against the juggernaut Eagles in a game with serious NFC East implications.

Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers are pricing Philadelphia as a touchdown favorite on the road in this divisional matchup, which speaks to the clear gap between these two heading into Week 14.

Here’s how we’re betting Sunday’s contest, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Fox.

It’s tough to lay such a big price on the road in any matchup, especially a division rivalry. But there’s just too much pointing to a blowout in Sunday’s contest to ignore.

By all accounts, the Eagles are among the best teams in the league. They rank third in DVOA, net yards per play (+1.09), and scoring differential (+112) and are the only team to rank in the top five in yards per game (388.3) and yards allowed per game (296.4).

All of those metrics are … not so kind to the Giants, who profile as a below-average team by just about any stat other than wins and losses. In fact, they rank seventh-worst in net yards per play (-0.6) with a negative scoring differential (-7), both of which rank second-worst among teams with a winning record.

Despite all that, New York owns the NFL’s best record against the spread (9-3) for two key reasons: they’ve been one of the league’s biggest surprises, and they have a knack for keeping it close. Ten of the Giants’ 12 games have been decided by one possession, including last week’s tie against the Commanders that was never decided at all.

Here’s the issue: this team has clearly been worse over the back half of the year, posting a 1-3-1 record over the last five weeks with all three losses coming by at least eight points. Compare that to the Eagles, who are coming off a season-best 25-point win over the Titans and have won eight of their 12 games by seven points or more.

This matchup is further complicated by the injury to Saquon Barkley (neck), who’s iffy to play on Sunday after one of his least inspiring efforts of the season (63 yards, 3.5 YPC) in last week’s tie. He’s clearly the Giants’ best chance of keeping pace with Philly, which owns one of the stingiest pass defenses in football but has consistently struggled against the run.

Normally, that’d play to New York’s strengths, but a weakened Barkley – if he plays at all – makes this a tough sell on the hosts after what we’ve seen from them in recent weeks. Big road favorites always carry risk, but the Eagles are clearly the superior side here and have enough in their favor to justify the price.