Commercial content 21+.

Our NFL betting writer brings you his best Giants vs. Eagles predictions and picks for their NFL Week 18 showdown, which is live Sunday at 4:25 p.m. on CBS.

The Philadelphia Eagles just need to beat or tie the New York Giants to secure the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC, but both teams have personnel questions to answer before this regular-season finale.

Ohio sports betting is live – Check out the best Ohio betting sites & apps

The Eagles (13-3) are inadvertently making a case for Jalen Hurts to win NFL Most Valuable Player. They’ve gone 0-2 since Hurts sprained his throwing shoulder against the Chicago Bears and Gardner Minshew took over. What was once the team with the best record in football now might not even win their division, if they lose and the Dallas Cowboys win on Sunday. Hurts has been limited in practice this week. “If he’s ready to pay, we’ll play him,” coach Nick Sirianni said.

The Giants (9-6-1), coming off a 38-10 thrashing of the Indianapolis Colts, are playoff-bound for the first time since 2016. But since the G-Men are locked into the No. 6 seed with no way to move up or down, it’s questionable how much the starters will play Sunday. First-year coach Brian Daboll has been coy, at one point saying “You get rest after the season” but later revealing the staff will decide who is playing at the end of the week.

The Eagles walloped the Giants 48-22 in Week 14, with a healthy Hurts throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for one.

That was on the road in East Rutherford, N.J., and while the Giants still had something worth playing for.

Now it all adds up for Philadelphia, which gets to be home and face a Giants team likely to rest important starters like Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley for most or all of the game.

Vegas has the Eagles as a two-touchdown favorite as a result. The only concern with that spread is whether the Eagles will be able to cover it if Hurts ends up not playing. But putting aside last week’s 20-10 loss to New Orleans, the Eagles had little trouble scoring 34 points the week before against a good Dallas team with Minshew in control.

Eagles vs. Giants pick: Eagles to cover -14 at -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

The Giants and Eagles are two of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, ranking fourth and fifth with 149.4 and 148.4 yards per game, respectively.

That identity doesn’t change if Barkley rests and Matt Breida takes New York’s carries, or Miles Sanders is given a breather after a half and Boston Scott guides Philadelphia’s backfield.

The longer teams stay on the field running the ball, the lower the chance of a big scoring total. The Giants are 6-8-2 in the O/U category this year as they’ve relied more on methodical drives than on big chunk plays in the passing game.

And while Philadelphia managed to score 48 in these teams’ last meeting, they haven’t looked as dynamic without Hurts. Even if he’s in the lineup, a big lead likely means Philadelphia will let off the gas and turn to backups.

Eagles vs. Giants pick: Under 43 total points scored @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

After scoring a grand total of zero touchdowns in 12 games in 2021, Sanders has exploded for the best season of his four-year Eagles career. The Pro Bowler has 1,236 yards and 11 touchdowns to lead Philadelphia’s backfield.

Sanders hasn’t scored in three weeks, meaning he’s more than due. It also helps you get him at a somewhat favorable number of +380; he’s still the favorite in this category, but his odds could have been much shorter.

The Giants have given up 14 total touchdowns to running backs this season – 12 rushing, two receiving – which works out to almost one per game.

One bonus reason: If Hurts is unable to play, or if the Eagles are careful about using him in short-yardage running situations due to his shoulder, that takes the team’s favorite red-zone rusher out of the equation and likely gives Sanders more opportunity. He’s tied for fifth in the league in carries inside the 20 with 40 (Hurts is second at 44).

Eagles vs. Giants pick: Miles Sanders to score the first touchdown @ +380 with Caesars Sportsbook

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.