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Our NFL betting expert brings you his best Giants vs. Titans predictions and picks for their NFL Week 1 contest, which is live Sunday at 4:25 EST on Fox.

The two-time AFC South champion Tennessee Titans open their season against the New York Giants, who will be starting anew under coach Brian Daboll after the struggling franchise averaged 4.4 wins a year over the past five seasons.

Football’s cognoscenti have been wondering whether the Titans are due for some regression in 2022. Ryan Tannehill couldn’t get it done in the playoffs last year and recently turned 34. Derrick Henry is coming off a foot injury and will run behind a weaker offensive line. And the Titans dealt away No. 1 receiver A.J. Brown rather than pay him the extension he sought.

The Giants are in sore need of a rebound as they start working with their third head coach since 2018. 

The Giants ranked middle of the road in pass attempts last season. Even with a healthy Saquon Barkley, expect them to rely more on the passing game thanks to not only Daboll, but also new offensive coordinator Mike Kafka, previously the passing game coordinator for Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

It’s still early to say, but this Giants offense, while not amazing on paper, could surprise some teams in the early going. Jones is effectively playing for his NFL life. And the Titans’ defense will have a harder time getting in his way with sack leader Harold Landry now out for the season with a torn ACL.

A 5.5-point spread feels like a lot this early in the season when the game isn’t as obvious a mismatch as, say, if the Rams played the Texans. We’ll give New York a shot and look for a close game in Nashville.

Our Pick: Giants to cover the +5.5 spread @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

There’s nowhere for New York’s offense to go but up after it ranked 31st in the NFL last year with 15.2 points per game. Sterling Shepard, a consistent veteran receiver, has recovered from an Achilles injury. Can Daboll and Kafka unlock not only Jones’ potential, but that of receivers like Kenny Golladay, a one-time Pro Bowler in Detroit?

On the other side of the ball, Tennessee’s offense may not look so different without Brown as long as Henry is at the center of the attack. Even coming off an injury, Henry is always a threat to break off a long touchdown run. These inflate the score at a moment’s notice, and he helped the Titans average a respectable 24.6 points per game last season.

We’re leaning over, with a 24-21 or 27-20 result well within the realm of possibility. The Giants could be playing from behind and slinging the ball early, and the Titans have a pretty green set of starting corners that could give up a few of their own big plays.

Pick: Over 43.5 total points @ -110 with Caesars Sportsbook

Dealing away a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver like Brown hurts in more ways than one, but on paper, Tennessee got younger and not necessarily a ton worse at the position. That’s because the first-round pick the team received from the Philadelphia Eagles in the deal was spent on Arkansas wideout Treylon Burks, who will start Week 1 opposite offseason acquisition Robert Woods.

By trading Brown, the Titans showed 105 targets the door. Woods and Burks will be relied upon to handle splitting those targets up, but Burks projects as more of a true Brown replacement. Brown is listed at 6-foot-1, 225 pounds; Burks is 6-foot-2 and 225. The frame is there to create mismatches against opposing secondaries and come down with the ball more often than not.

Burks’ over/under for receiving yards in Week 1 is 25.5. This feels laughably low. Provided he’s targeted early, he could surpass that by halftime.

Our Pick: Over 25.5 receiving yards for Titans WR Treylon Burks @ -115 with Caesars Sportsbook.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.