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Having shared my modeling strategy for this weekend’s Valero Texas Open, it’s time to apply it and make some picks.

Today’s column will focus on the derivative markets available to bettors before we dive into some matchup bets tomorrow. As a matter of note, I’m staying away from the futures market as I believe Rory McIlroy is a rightful favorite, but doesn’t have a bettable number.

That said, I found tons of value in the derivative markets, including one big discrepancy based on my modeling. So, without further delay, here are my best derivative bets for the Valero Texas Open.

Vegas is coming off a great finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship last weekend and rates incredibly highly in my model for this week.

Over the last 36 rounds, Vegas ranks out second in my model, largely due in part to his ability to score on Par 4s between 350 and 400 yards (he ranks first in the field in that category across his last 36 rounds). If you expand the sample size to the field’s last 75 rounds, Vegas arrives at TPC San Antonio first in that particular model and ranks top-10 or better in four of five modeling metrics.

The only reason I’m opting for a safer derivative market is that Vegas doesn’t possess the best history at this event. He missed the cut in 2021 and hasn’t finished inside the top-30 in any of his last five appearances.

But, even though he missed the cut last year, he gained strokes on the field in both approach and tee-to-green, so I’m hopeful he can maintain that record and post a better finish at TPC San Antonio. Ultimately, I would be quite surprised if he wins, but think a top-40 finish is doable.

It’s been feast or famine for Kirk at the Valero across his last five starts. But in the feast years, the results have been incredibly positive.

Kirk posted a Top 6 finish in 2021 to pair with a Top 8 in 2018 and a Top 13 in 2016. Plus, his recent form suggests Kirk is primed for a good finish at TPC San Antonio. Prior to missing the cut at The Players Championship, Kirk finished in the top-15 in three consecutive starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Honda Classic and WM Phoenix Open.

In terms of Kirk’s placement in my model, he enters this event sixth in both the 36-round and 50-round models. Shrinking the sample size down to the last 24 rounds moves Kirk up to third amongst players who have qualified at least 24 rounds of play.

And although it’s the smallest overall sample, Kirk’s 24-round modeling stats help to assuage some concerns. For example, Kirk ranks 45th in the field in Par 5 scoring on holes between 550 and 600 yards, but is second in the field in that category over the last 24 rounds.

Pair that with the sixth-best SG: T2G metrics in the field across the last 24 rounds and the fifth-best scoring record on Par 4’s between 350 and 400 yards, and I believe you’ll see another strong performance from the University of Georgia product in Texas.

The bad news for Rory is that there’s little course history to go off of here, but the good news is he shows out very well in my model.

As mentioned earlier, I believe the Northern Irishman is a rightful favorite. He’s third in my 36-round model, first across the last 50 rounds and second across the last 75 registered rounds. Plus, even though he doesn’t have direct experience at TPC San Antonio, he’s posted good results at a few correlated courses. In his last three starts at Riviera Country Club — a correlated course, per datagolf.com — McIlroy owns two Top 10 finishes.

Just in terms of his statistical performance in my modeling categories, McIlroy rates out very highly. He’s fourth or better over the last 36 rounds in SG: T2G, Par 5 scoring on holes between 550 and 600 yards and Par 4 scoring on holes between 350 and 400 yards.

And even though his SG: Approach figure ranks 31st over the last 36 rounds, that has improved as of late. Across his last eight rounds, McIlroy ranks 12th in the field in that category.

Bettors should expect McIlroy’s best effort as he prepares for a trip to Augusta National next week to try and complete the career grand slam. For that reason, expect him to do no worse than a single-digit finish.