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One of the great things about college football bowl season is that often you’ll get a showdown between two very different, albeit mediocre, teams. That’s the case at the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve, as ground-and-pound San Diego State (7-5) is a 6.5-point favorite over pass-happy Middle Tennessee State (7-5). Both of these teams come into Hawaii in good form, too, as the Blue Raiders won their last three games of the season to become bowl-eligible, while San Diego State won five of seven to close out the campaign. 

And though both of these teams have very different approaches on offense, there is one similarity between the Blue Raiders and Aztecs —they both have strong defenses that should match up well with their opposing offense. 

San Diego State was one of the best defensive teams in the Group of 5 this season. Over their last nine games of 2022, the Aztecs allowed just two teams to score more than 14 points, and they finished the campaign ranked 17th in rushing success rate, 12th in finishing drives and were the 22nd-best pass rush in the country according to Pro Football Focus. 

That pass rush should be one of the keys to this contest as Middle Tennessee State — relies heavily on the pass — really struggled in the trenches. The Blue Raiders were the 120th-best pass blocking team in the country this season, per PFF. 

And if quarterback Chase Cunningham does manage to get the ball out of his hands, he’ll have to navigate a defense that finished 31st in pass coverage, per PFF, and was the 33rd-best team in the country at preventing explosive passing plays. 

On the other side of the ball, Middle Tennessee State’s defense should be able to hang with an offense that just loved to keep the ball on the ground. Just 21 teams ran the ball more than San Diego State this season, and the Aztecs weren’t all that great at it. San Diego State ranked 113th in rushing success rate, 122nd in line yards and 122nd in finishing drives. 

Middle Tennessee State should have no issues with that kind of attack, as it finished the season inside the top 50 in rushing success rate and top 30 in line yards. 

That said, the Aztecs did show some signs of improvement down the stretch, putting up 77 combined points against San Jose State and New Mexico behind terrific showings from quarterback Jalen Mayden. 

Even with Mayden in good form, the Blue Raiders should be able to contain him as their defense finished 53rd in pass rush and 31st in coverage, per PFF. 

All of this is to say that it’s hard to envision either of these offenses being able to open up this contest, so why not spend time with your loved ones on Christmas Eve by betting an Under in a bowl game out in Honolulu. 

San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) pick: Under 48.5 points (BetMGM)