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Fresh off of an injury-filled Game 3, the Boston Celtics look to tie it up against the Heat at home in Boston tonight.
Heat-Celtics odds have the Celtics as big favorites at home. Currently, Jimmy Butler is expected to play but Tyler Herro will be out for Miami.
This is a very relevant development for my NBA player prop bet predictions today: Herro is averaging about 25 minutes per game during the playoffs so this is a big loss for the Heat.
We can expect Max Strus and Victor Oladipo to pick up the extra minutes and usage for Miami tonight.
Lastly, Warriors Forward Draymond Green had some pointers for Jayson Tatum to improve his game on his podcast today. A breakdown of that is at the end of the article and how we can profit off on Green’s mentorship of Tatum.
Heat-Celtics Game 4 odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: MIA +6.5 (-105) vs. BOS -6.5 (-115)
Moneyline: MIA (+240) vs. BOS (-300)
Total: Over 205.5 (-110) | Under 205.5 (-110)
Heat-Celtics Game 4 prediction and player prop bets
The Celtics are big favorites to win Game 4 and rightfully so. They are healthier and more in need of a win. They are also home, so expect a solid performance. A bet on the Celtics to cover 6.5 points is a fine bet, especially with the Heat at less than 100%.
The really juicy wagers, as usual, are with player prop bets for today’s game. With Jimmy Butler battling injuries, someone is going to need to make up for that lack of production.
Victor Oladipo points ladder: 15+ points +300 (FanDuel) | ‘Over’ 1.5 steals +185 (DraftKings)
Out goes Herro and insert Oladipo. Oladipo has a solid usage rating in the games he plays, 21.1, which rivals that of Tyrese Maxey (21.3) and Kyrie Irving (21.5). He also shoots a lot, with 4.5 three-point attempts per game during the regular season.
He’s also been hounding Boston’s playmakers, namely Jaylen Brown, who can’t really dribble. Oladipo had four steals on Saturday and is ‘over’ 1.5 steals in two of the three games this series. With Herro out and Butler limited, expect more minutes (he’s averaging 20.3 minutes per game) and even more usage.
Jayson Tatum ‘over’ 6.5 rebounds +120 (BetMGM)
Draymond Green was coaching up Tatum on the “Draymond Green Show” today as the two have a close personal relationship, even titling the episode “Will Tatum rebound?”
Now, the title is misleading slightly as it means ‘rebound’ in the sense of play better.
However, he went on to say that Oladipo’s lateral movement shouldn’t be able to stay in front of Tatum. This is a spot for Tatum to get in the paint and post up guys like Oladipo and blow by an older player like PJ Tucker.
Look for Tatum to take this advice very literally as the paint will be his friend when his shot isn’t falling. The paint is a spot for putback offensive rebounds and being more aggressive against smaller guys like Oladipo.
Tatum had six rebounds in Game 3 on a bad ankle and five rebounds in Game 2. Not terrible numbers but his rebound total is a good spot tonight at plus-money.
