The Hornets are in a complete tailspin, having lost eight of their past nine games. A big part of their struggle stems from poor play on offense. They are scoring 105.2 points per 100 possessions (26th in the NBA) during this stretch after scoring 113.8 per 100 (fourth) prior to this slump. Although the market doesn’t price this in, the Hornets’ offensive woes can be attributed to the loss of Gordon Hayward, one of Charlotte’s best playmakers and scoring threats.

Despite leading the league in pace (100.9 possessions), this Hornets have gone under the closing total six times in the past nine games. Their matchup Thursday doesn’t shape up well for an Over either — the Heat play at the fourth-slowest pace (95.8), rank 22nd in offensive length of possession (14.9 seconds) and last defensive length of possession (15.1). The Heat have the ability to lock down the Hornets with the league’s sixth-best defensive unit (108.3 rating), especially if they can keep the game in the half court, where they allow the fifth-fewest points per play (91.4).

In their last head-to-head meeting, the Heat held the Hornets to 86 points on 0.88 points per possession. The Hornets actually had Hayward available for that game, which was played at a pace of just 97.6 possessions.

We’re looking at a slower-paced game right before the All-Star break, and the Heat are likely to be missing the front-runner for Sixth Man of the year, Tyler Herro. In their last meeting, Herro put up 19 points on 7-of-13 (53.8 percent) shooting, and his impact on this Heat offense can’t be understated. The Heat are scoring 107.8 ppg in the 12 games without Herro this season, so I’m not expecting a huge output here from the Heat as well. My model makes this game 224 total points.

The play: Hornets-Heat, Under 228.