Because sports bettors best remember things that just happened, a narrative about “slow starts” and “fast starts” is forming for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV matching the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
Kansas City fell behind both Houston and Tennessee in the AFC brackets before storming back to win and cover. That “must” mean that it takes awhile for coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes to figure things out.
San Francisco led Green Bay 27-0 at the half. That “must” mean that the tactically brilliant coach Kyle Shanahan is great at developing early game plans.
If true, this would set up very easy bets against first quarter and first half lines in Sunday’s showdown. Wouldn’t San Francisco be a steal at pick ’em (-105) or +¹/₂ (-160) in the first quarter, and pick ’em (-105) for the first half? (Odds from William Hill).
Obviously, that’s not much of a sample size. How can we check to see if these themes are true? They sound reasonable. Mahomes is a young magician who may need time to recognize what opposing defenses will give him. Shanahan was raised as a football “chess player” since birth.
Yesterday, VSiN focused on what happened when the Chiefs (with Mahomes) and 49ers faced playoff opponents. Counting the postseason, Kansas City has a six-game sample, San Francisco a seven-game sample. Let’s look for more evidence about “starts” in those indicator matchups:
First quarters: Kansas City was prone to dig early holes, going just 2-4 straight up in first quarters while getting outscored, 47-37. Though, those were weighted down by a combined 31-7 debacle in the playoffs. K.C. was up 30-16 during the regular season against Baltimore, Houston, Tennessee, and New England.
San Francisco really does start fast. The Niners were 4-1-2 straight up in first quarters, with the loss coming in the Superdome against powerful New Orleans … and one of the ties resulting in a point-spread cover as an underdog at Baltimore. San Francisco won its combined first quarter scoreboard 58-27 against Seattle (twice), Green Bay (twice), Baltimore, New Orleans, and Minnesota. Wow.
First halves: Kansas City typically had things figured out by the second quarter. So, the slow starts involved just the first 15 minutes. The Chiefs won second quarters 85-43 to finish with a 122-90 scoreboard edge in its six halftimes against teams that reached the playoffs.
San Francisco continued to thrive in second quarters, with a 71-44 edge resulting in a combined 129-61 halftime advantage. That’s astounding considering the caliber of opposition. They even “avenged” that first-quarter loss at New Orleans by leading 28-27 at the break.
If you’re wondering about second halves, virtual dead heats. Kansas City won its last two quarters 76-75 vs. those opponents, San Francisco lost 88-87.
Bottom lines: San Francisco is definitely a fast starter, while Kansas City is at least vulnerable early even if its last two games overstate the trend. Something for smart bettors to think about as they map out their big-game strategies.
