LAS VEGAS — Thanks to an unusual act of transparency by one of the major sportsbooks in Las Vegas, bettors now know professional oddsmakers have a different opinion of the top four teams in the nation than do the people who do the rankings for the College Football Playoff.
The official current pecking order was released Tuesday night: 1. LSU; 2. Ohio State; 3. Clemson; 4. Georgia; 5. (and first out) Alabama; 6. Oregon.
Circa Sports in Las Vegas decided to release its power ratings to provide a comparison to the committee’s rankings.
Why?
“We want to be the bettors’ bookmaker,” said Matt Metcalf, Circa’s sportsbook director.
Circa ranked the teams this way: 1. Ohio State; 2. Clemson; 3. LSU; 4. Alabama; 5. Oklahoma; 6. Georgia.
“Our ratings tend to put a bit more weight on historical data — where a program is rated on average over the span of a few seasons — rather than what that specific team has done on the field,” said Matt Lindeman, head college football oddsmaker at Circa Sports.
“Ohio State and Clemson have recruited and performed at a slightly higher level than LSU in recent years and therefore get more respect in preseason power ratings. While LSU easily has the most impressive résumé this year, they have not outperformed either team by enough to take over the top spot in our ratings, taking those other factors into account.”
LSU, top-rated by the committee, is now in the driver’s seat to win the SEC West and go to the SEC Championship game in Atlanta. The Tigers close out the regular season at Ole Miss and then host Arkansas and Texas A&M.
“LSU is basically in,” said John Murray, Westgate SuperBook’s race and sportsbook director.
LSU has the most wins against CFP Top 20 teams including, victories over No. 5 Alabama, No. 11 Florida, No. 12 Auburn and No. 19 Texas.
The likely SEC Championship matchup is LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia, but the Bulldogs have a tough game this weekend at Auburn in the 124th edition of the “Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.”
Two years ago, Georgia was unbeaten and ranked No. 2 in the country and was blown out, 40-17 at Auburn, but ended up getting exacting its revenge in the SEC Championship game and getting into the playoff with one loss. The Bulldogs may not have that luxury this time due to their double-overtime loss 21-point home favorites to South Carolina on Oct. 12.
The team that could be left out is Alabama. The Crimson Tide are in a position where they are going to need some dominoes to fall in front of them. They have an opportunity for a quality win in the Iron Bowl at Auburn to close the regular season, but their easy non-conference schedule (Duke, New Mexico State, Southern Miss, Western Carolina) could end up coming back to bite them.
Recall in 2017, Alabama had one loss and didn’t make the SEC Championship and yet still made the College Football Playoff. The Tide had three wins over top 20 teams that season. That’s not the case now.
“Alabama is the team that has to worry,” Murray said.
Ohio State has a tune-up at Rutgers this weekend as a 52 ¹/₂-point favorite. The Buckeyes then meet Penn State, ranked ninth by the CFP, then close out the regular season with “The Game” in Ann Arbor against a suddenly resurgent Michigan. Meanwhile, Penn State’s path back into the top four has to include a win in Columbus next week and then a victory in the Big Ten Championship game against the winner of the Nov. 30 Wisconsin-Minnesota game.
Minnesota roared up the charts from No. 17 to No. 8 by beating Penn State. The Golden Gophers travel to Iowa City this weekend to face Iowa for the bronze pig, then visit downtrodden Northwestern. After that is a home date with Wisconsin in a battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, the Big Ten West title and a spot in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game, where Minnesota would get a shot at the Buckeyes or a rematch with the Nittany Lions.
Clemson doesn’t have any marquee wins this season. After their scare at North Carolina at the end of September, the defending national champions got refocused. The Tigers have won their last five games by a combined score of 263-55. They host a 7-2 Wake Forest team which has been ranked for several weeks this season, and are laying near five touchdowns this weekend.
However, Clemson clearly passes the proverbial eye test and obviously is one of the nation’s top four teams. All they have to do is win out and they will be in the playoff. Nevertheless, Dabo Swinney likely isn’t taking any chances as he’s never been shy about tacking on late scores for style points in games which are long decided.
