New Jersey sportsbooks must be happy local college basketball fans can’t bet games involving Seton Hall. The Pirates are off to a 4-1 start straight up and against the spread as they head to the Bahamas and the Battle 4 Atlantis.
Fans and investors no doubt are scouting out “other jurisdictions” to back the Pirates on open seas in the annual basketball Bacchanalia that begins Wednesday.
This year’s event is shaping up as quite a tournament. Seton Hall will play in at least one blockbuster, opening in Wednesday’s nightcap versus dangerous Oregon. It might play in three. If form holds, the Pirates would face powerhouse Gonzaga in the semifinals, followed possibly by North Carolina in the final.
Of course, holiday tournaments are famous for shockers, so no guarantees.
The Pirates aren’t the only Bahamas entry befuddling the market thus far. Let’s quickly run through Wednesday’s matchups with an eye on point-spread performance, with Ken Pomeroy’s computer rankings entering Monday’s action in parentheses:
- Michigan (24) vs. Iowa State (45), noon, ESPN: Iowa State is 3-1 ATS out of the gate. VSiN always reminds you to focus on what ATS records are saying about “the market” rather than the team. Iowa State has been underrated thus far. It’s your job as handicappers to determine if and when point spreads have caught up to reality. That can take a long time in November college basketball because oddsmakers are still intently focused on football.
- North Carolina (9) vs. Alabama (78), 2:30 p.m., ESPN: The Tar Heels have been a disappointment offensively. That’s keyed a combo showing 1-3 ATS, and 0-4 to the Under on totals. They looked generic (and overpriced) vs. the likes of Elon and Gardner-Webb.
- Gonzaga (5) vs. Southern Miss (229), 7 p.m., ESPNU: Two value teams for bettors, though on different ends of the spectrum. Southern Miss has surpassed low expectations in two of three games. Gonzaga is 4-2 ATS despite being priced like a national-championship threat (the opposite of UNC). The Bulldogs impressed in a 30-point win at Texas A&M as eight-point favorites. (If Seton Hall can’t beat Oregon, it’s extremely likely to draw Southern Miss on Day 2.)
- Seton Hall (19) vs. Oregon (16), 9:30 p.m., ESPN2: You already know the Hall is 4-1 straight up and ATS. The only outright loss was by three points to Michigan State, which entered the week No. 1 with Pomeroy. That result beat the spread. The only non-cover was a 17-point win over Stony Brook laying 20.5.
Oregon also has cashed 80 percent of its tickets for backers. You may have watched the Ducks beat Memphis and then-eligible freshman phenom James Wiseman 82-74 as four-point favorites.
Let TV networks worry about North Carolina, Gonzaga and other traditional powers through holiday events. Smart bettors will be looking for slow market adjustments up and down the daily schedules.
