If you’re just now starting to handicap 2019-20 college basketball, it’s important to know that offensive efficiency is way down.
Two traditional powers squaring off Wednesday provide immediate examples of reduced efficiency when newly unranked North Carolina visits No. 2 Gonzaga (9 p.m., ESPN2).
Last year, Gonzaga had the most efficient offense in college basketball according to Ken Pomeroy’s data. The Bulldogs registered 124.5 points per 100 possessions after an adjustment for schedule strength. Six other offenses were able to break the 120 threshold.
This season, Gonzaga entered the week ranked No. 4 in that stat, but its production had plummeted to 114.3. That’s slightly more than 10 points worse per 100 possessions despite sticking in the top five. Only six teams entered the week at 114.0 or better. Nobody’s anywhere near 120.
It’s true that isn’t a pure comparison, looking at a third of a season compared to a full season. But, it should to be easier to score efficiently against a cupcake-heavy schedule than it is during league play.
Some offenses are falling apart. Look at what’s happened to North Carolina. The Tar Heels were ranked ninth by the AP before the season began. They’ve already lost four games — 73-64 to Michigan as a four-point favorite, 74-49 to Ohio State as a three-point favorite, 56-47 to Virginia as a three-point underdog, and 68-64 to Wofford(!) as an 11-point favorite.
A shocking 6-4 straight up/2-8 ATS start has been keyed by a big drop in adjusted offensive efficiency. UNC ended last season at 119.7 (No. 8 nationally). So far this year, it’s 106.7 (barely top 50).
Whether you’re handicapping this week, or waiting for conference play to dominate the schedule come January, it’s important that you throw out old perceptions. What you remember from last season may not matter any more. Even team histories under long-time head coaches may derail because of less effective offensive execution sport-wide.
Handicapping and betting will be messy for awhile. That means conservative betting with a variety of options is better than stepping out big on any particular play. For now, sound strategy would include:
- Fading struggling offenses, particularly if the eye test is showing clear player frustration. And, it could turn out that these teams are going to perform particularly badly on the road or at neutral sites.
- Backing the best defenses at value prices, especially at home. Be on the lookout for great defensive rebounding teams that best exploit poor shooting.
- Finding teams the market is slow to catch up or “catch down” to … then exploiting the dynamic until a full adjustment is made.
Betting markets are rarely flying blind to this degree in any sport. Whether reduced efficiency is because of an adjustment to the 3-point arc, the increased influence of poor fundamentals from youth basketball, or improved defensive schematics, be sure you recognize this window of opportunity and bet smart!
