LAS VEGAS — Gerrit Cole won’t put on his pinstriped jersey officially until Tuesday, but the right-hander who signed a nine-year, $324 million contract this week has won the winter for the Yankees.
William Hill almost immediately moved the Bombers from 5/1 co-favorites with the Astros to win the World Series to 3-1 favorites. Now, we’re seeing the impact Cole is having on regular-season win totals and other propositions.
Cole went 35-10 in his two seasons in Houston, and gives the Yankees a true ace to go along with Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka and a combination of Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German and J.A. Happ. PointsBet USA in New Jersey already has posted a variety of props including Cole total strikeouts (280.5), Cole total wins (15.5), Cole to throw a no-hitter (20/1) and Cole to win the AL Cy Young Award (4/1).
In terms of the Yankees’ win total, it opened during the postseason at 97.5 and is now up to 101.5.
“Early signs would indicate the market didn’t think that adjustment [to 100.5] was significant enough as we took immediate Over money on the Yankees, pushing their win total up to 101.5,” said Matthew Chaprales, director of content at PointsBet. Chaprales also confirms his book received some Under money on Houston although PointsBet USA’s World Series futures moves — Houston from 9/2 to 5/1 and Yankees from 5/1 to 9/2 — were fairly negligible.
A great deal of player movement already has taken place, and the man controlling the free-agency market, as usual, is Scott Boras. In the past week, four Boras clients have signed deals totaling $878 million — Cole, Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245 million to stay with the Nationals), Anthony Rendon (seven years, $245 million with the Angels) and Mike Moustakas (four years, $64 million with the Reds). Boras’ clients should end up with over a billion this offseason after Nick Castellanos, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel sign deals.
The Angels had been seeking some sort of support and protection for Mike Trout in their lineup and perhaps found it in Rendon, who batted .319 and led the majors with 126 RBIs. PointsBet adjusted the Angels win total up to 86.5 from 83.5. In turn, the Nationals win total has gone down from 89.5 to 86.5. The Angels are now 30/1 (from 40/1) to win the World Series while the defending-champion Nationals are now 16/1 (from 12/1) to repeat at PointsBet USA.
Now the free-agency attention turns about 25 miles north on I-5 to the Dodgers. They were the winningest team in baseball last year with 106 but weren’t able to get to the World Series. They whiffed on two native Southern Californians in Cole and Strasburg, so they may actually have to turn to their longtime nemesis Madison Bumgarner as the Giants are now in rebuilding mode.
The Dodgers have a lot of good, young prospects who have now made their way to the majors, but will be looking mainly for depth now that several of the bigger fish are off the market. We shouldn’t spend too much time crying for the Dodgers considering they are 9/2 co-favorites, along with the Yankees, at PointsBet USA.
Free agency garners the bulk of the attention in December, but there could also be some big trades as Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor are rumored to be on the block. If the trade market starts to heat up, we will see the betting market become even more fluid. Nevertheless, the teams to beat last season very much appear to be the same ones to beat for the upcoming season.
