VSiN’s MMA expert takes a deep dive into the main event of Saturday night’s UFC card in Las Vegas.

Gastelum, the ninth-ranked middleweight and an Arizona native, is the prototypical “don’t judge a book by its cover” fighter. Physically, he appears more like a plumber than a power puncher, so it’s important to not measure Gastelum’s game by how he looks. He’s a wrestling-based southpaw with formidable boxing skills and a black belt in 10th Planet jiujitsu.

One of Gastelum’s biggest challenges in this fight is to prove to himself and the MMA world that, although he has lost four of his last five bouts, the former middleweight challenger still has the skills and desire to compete with the division’s elite. Gastelum will enter the octagon desperate for a win, which makes him extremely dangerous.

Another hurdle he must overcome is how he approaches this bout. Gastelum is undersized as a middleweight because he is unable to make the welterweight 170-pound limit. In fact, on occasion, he has even struggled to make the 185-pound middleweight limit. This reflects on his conditioning and ethic behind the scenes and during camp.

If Gastelum is to employ his wrestling in this fight, he’ll need to arrive fit, because wrestling takes a tremendous toll on one’s cardio. Honestly, I question whether Gastelum has three rounds of wrestling in him, let alone five, based on past performances and current form.

What Gastelum will want to encourage in the smaller cage at the APEX is a fight that takes place in the pocket, because his best path to victory is to engage any willing opponent for a throwdown. This is when he is most dangerous.

Cannonier, who trains at the MMALab in Phoenix, is ranked third in the division. He started his career as a heavyweight, shifted to light heavyweight and now has found a home at middleweight. He has fared quite well in this weight class and enters this bout off a championship loss to titleholder Robert Whittaker, in which he broke his arm early and lost with a unanimous decision.

Cannonier’s explosiveness, power and striking are precision-based and destructive at middleweight, and he’ll hold advantages in athleticism and footwork, which is the key to this bout. What most overlook is Cannonier’s underrated Brazilian jiu-jitsu, wrestling and ground game, something he has been grinding on tirelessly in the gym in preparation for this bout. I don’t believe Gastelum will be able to take Cannonier down and keep him down, which will allow most of this fight to take place standing.

Cannonier has been cracked by much larger men than Gastelum, and while Gastelum’s strikes pack power, it’s nothing the larger, longer, switch-stance Cannonier has not seen. Cannonier will choose to remain at a distance while not engaging Gastelum “in the pocket,” because he is aware that’s his opponent’s sole path to victory.

Gastelum may try to gain an advantage over Cannonier by getting this bout to the mat. But it’s my judgment that he will not have success, and the energy he uses will sap his cardio, leaving him potentially exposed in the later rounds.

Gastelum will need to strike with Cannonier, and in order to accomplish that, he’ll have to overcome disadvantages in height, length, size, speed and movement.

In a striking battle, Gastelum will be most dangerous early and from an inside position. Should he experiment with takedown attempts, he’ll learn quickly that he is facing a fighter with the mental discipline to commit to and execute a plan, and that plan involves keeping this fight upright and at distance.

Recommendation: Cannonier -150 Leg 1 open parlay to be filled on a later card.