The Dodgers steamrolled an overrated Padres offense in the NLDS, and they face another overrated NL team in the Braves in the NLCS. Picking favorites is boring, but the Dodgers are simply better — by a lot — than anyone the National League can throw against them.

The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball, and it’s not even close. You might not think it by looking at the 2020 stats, but it’s true. By 2020 measures, the Braves actually led MLB with a .355 team weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) — five points ahead of the Dodgers. That number and ranking greatly exaggerates the actual quality of Atlanta’s offense, though, as it aided by quite a bit of 60-game, small-sample-size variance.

Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna, and Ronald Acuna each finished with a wOBA above .400, and nobody in baseball (except Mike Trout) projects as a true .400+ hitter. No player better encapsulates this good fortune, however, than journeyman catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who finished with a .392 wOBA despite posting even a league average just once in his career prior.

According to my projection system, THE BAT X (accounting for context, sample size, multiple years of data, weighting, etc.), the Braves are much more likely a .335 hitting team than a .355 one. The Dodgers, meanwhile, overperformed their team wOBA by just five points, rather than Atlanta’s 20.

The Dodgers have a stacked roster full of players who have performed at a high level for more than just two months and have the best offense in MLB by any metric that isn’t recency-biased.

The Dodgers also have the superior pitching in this matchup, and it’s not close. It’s actually quite shocking the Braves finished the 2020 season with the third-worst rotation ERA in baseball (5.51 — behind just the Angels and Tigers) and have made it to the NLCS. Their top two starters, Max Fried and Ian Anderson, had ERAs far better than their xFIP numbers and my THE BAT X projected ERAs. Kyle Wright’s 5.21 ERA was more or less in line with his 5.33 xFIP, but those numbers are really bad. After those three, it’s not even clear who else the Braves would turn to. Best case would be a bullpen day or two with Huascar Ynoa opening … and they don’t even have a good long-man.

The Dodgers have no such issues — with two true aces in Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, and three well-above-average pitchers rounding things out.

It’s almost not fair for the Dodgers to have the best offense in baseball, one of the best pitching staffs and also the second-best bullpen. Atlanta’s pen, meanwhile, is firmly average. As with the rotation, the Dodgers’ third-best reliever (Adam Kolarek) is about equal to the Braves’ best (Will Smith), and their depth is far superior.

The Dodgers are -223 to win the series at BetMGM, which implies a less than 70 percent chance to do it. That’s simply too low. It’s not sexy to bet a heavy favorite, but that’s where the value is. The Braves are overrated both on offense and in terms of their pitching, and the Dodgers simply have no holes. If you’re looking for something with a better payout, the Dodgers’ “Score After 3 Games” odds is where I’d look.

Picks: Dodgers to win series (-223) and Dodgers 3-0 After 3 Games (+370).