After 17 weeks of regular-season play, the real NFL season is finally here. From 32 teams down to 12 — the quest for the Lombardi Trophy officially has begun.

Betting on the postseason is an entirely different animal compared to the regular season. We are down to just a handful of games. As a result, each game will be incredibly heavily bet and flooded with recreational money. Many bettors who may not have placed a wager all season will now enter the arena and get down on playoff games just to get in on the fun. This creates a heightened edge for brave contrarian bettors who are willing to go against the grain, back unpopular teams, bet against the public.

The oddsmakers know that public action will grow exponentially from now until the Super Bowl. They also know that the vast majority of casual bettors will lean toward favorites, home teams and teams with better records and more star players. Average Joes will also gravitate toward Overs because they are psychologically biased toward rooting for points and wanting to watch exciting, high-scoring games. Simply put, it’s just not fun to sweat an Under. Oddsmakers will capitalize on this public bias and shade lines toward favorites and Overs, forcing public bettors to take overpriced numbers while also providing inflated or underpriced numbers to contrarians.

One of the easiest ways to go contrarian is to lean on underdogs. Since 2003, playoff underdogs have gone 95-76 ATS (55.6 percent), according to Bet Labs Sports. This may not seem like a very impressive record; however it’s important to remember that in order to overcome standard -110 vigorish, bettors need to win 52.38 percent of their plays. So anything above that means you are turning a profit. To be considered a sharp bettor, you need to consistently win between 55 and 60 percent of your bets. So a 55.6 percent cover rate for playoff ’dogs is actually quite impressive.

Here is the breakdown of how ’dogs have performed during each round of the playoffs since 2003

While going contrarian and betting on ’dogs is a smart postseason strategy, you also want to ensure that you’re on the sharp side of every play. This means being with the professional bettors who win at a high rate and have a long track record of success. Pro bettors, also known as sharps or wiseguys, have decades of experience, bet large amounts on games and have the respect of the books. Sharps are the ones who move lines, not the public. Money from sharps is considered “smart money.” You always want to be with smart money, never against it.

An easy way to spot sharp action is to look for situations where the line is moving toward the unpopular underdog (also known as reverse line movement). For example, this would mean a ’dog moved from +3 to +2¹/₂ or +6 to +5. When the line moves at least a half point toward a playoff ’dog, these teams have gone 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 2003.

While betting underdogs on the spread has proved to be profitable historically, so is taking a shot on ’dogs to win straight up on the money line. Since 2003, playoff ’dogs have gone 64-111. This is only a 36.6 percent win rate, but because of the plus money payouts (think +150, +200, +500), these teams have produced +19.61 units. This means a $100 bettor would have profited $1,961.

Experience also matters. Teams that made the playoffs the previous season have gone 99-85 ATS (53.8 percent) since 2003. If they are facing a team that missed the playoffs the previous year, they improve to 48-34 ATS (58.5 percent).

When it comes to playoff totals, the Under has gone 87-85 (50.6 percent) since 2003 — just about break even. However, we see a huge discrepancy depending on the round.

Unders have been huge money makers in the wild-card round, going 40-24 (62.5 percent) since 2003. However, Overs have been either break even or profitable during all other playoff rounds:

If you like betting Overs, focus on games played in a dome or closed-roof stadium. Playoff Overs indoors have gone 29-13 (69 percent) since 2003. This is due to the fast track and perfect conditions benefiting the offense, particularly kickers.