The Colts went 4-12 last season, a tour de force of underachievement. Behind Jacoby Brissett, they lost seven games they led at halftime and five games they led after three quarters.

The Colts had an egregious opponents’ third-down conversion rate of 44.5 percent, which analytics site Football Outsiders called a gap between overall defense and third-down defense never before witnessed.

The great thing for the Colts is that third-down performance is likely to simply regress to the mean. That, more aggressive play calling from new head coach Frank Reich, and the return of Andrew Luck (you thought I forgot) make the Colts a live play.

The plays: Colts season win total Over 6¹/₂ (-135 at William Hill); Colts to win AFC South at 6/1.