On Wednesday, the Baker Mayfield saga finally ended as the Cleveland Browns traded the wantaway quarterback to the Carolina Panthers for what will be a fourth or fifth-round 2024 draft pick. As a result, Draftkings wasted little time putting up Mayfield’s player props for the upcoming season.

However, before diving into those numbers, we first need to understand the circumstances of how Mayfield became a Carolina Panther. Here are the prop bet odds from BetMGM.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Panthers will pay $4.85 million of Mayfield’s $18.8 million salary, while the Browns will pay $10.5 million. The remainder of his salary will be tied to incentives, which he can recover based on how the Panthers perform.

Thus, it’s clear that the deal required sacrifices on both sides, with the Browns having to pay Mayfield to go away while the disgruntled quarterback could lose a portion of his salary should the team fall short in reaching the incentives placed in the deal.

While acquiring Mayfield may seem like a smart business move for the Panthers, the reality is they look indecisive about the direction of their organization. 

In April 2021, Carolina traded a second, a fourth, and a sixth-round pick to acquire quarterback Sam Darnold from the Jets. A few weeks later, the Panthers picked up Darnold’s $18.86 million fifth-year option.

Darnold was woeful in his first season with the Panthers. He appeared in 12 games, making 11 starts, and threw for 2,527 yards with nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Darnold finished 31st among quarterbacks with a 33.2 Total QBR.

The Panthers also have a third quarterback on their depth chart after drafting Matt Corral from Ole Miss in the third round with the 94th pick.

And while it might look like an all-out competition for the starting quarterback job, one can’t help but wonder whether the Panthers are pot-committed to Darnold as their starter, having already made significant investments in capital and draft picks.

It’s worth noting that the Panthers have a very temperamental owner in David Tepper. Tepper’s been known to make changes almost at a whim’s notice without much explanation.

Yet while I expect the Panthers to begin the season with Darnold under center, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Mayfield at some point this season. Frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see all three quarterbacks at some point.

Now that we’ve examined the factors that could determine Mayfield’s playing time, let’s look at his player props.

Mayfield’s gone over 3800 passing yards just once in his career. In 2019, the Oklahoma product attempted 534 passes and finished with 3,827 passing yards. However, Mayfield threw 21 interceptions along with 22 touchdowns.

Less is often more for Mayfield as his offensive coordinators sometimes need to protect the former Heisman winner from himself. And given our drawn-out analysis on the Panthers quarterback carousel position, it’s tough even to project Mayfield starting all 17 games during the season.

According to TeamRankings, Carolina ranked 16th with a pass play rate of 58.9 percent but 32nd with a completion rate of 58.1 percent in 2021. Thus, it’s entirely plausible the Panthers will look to run the ball more—especially if they have a healthy Christian McCaffrey. In 2021, McCaffrey missed ten games due to injury and 13 games in 2020.

If the Panthers plan to have any success, they’ll need McCaffrey to play a significant role in their offense to help take pressure off their quarterbacks.

Nonetheless, the under on his passing yards prop is a bet I’d be comfortable making right now, particularly before training camp starts.

I would recommend waiting to bet Mayfield’s touchdown prop until after the preseason when we know who the starter will be for the Panthers. In Mayfield’s rookie season, he threw 27 touchdowns, followed by 26 during the 2020-21 season.

One thing we know about Mayfield is he’s not afraid to push the ball down the field. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Mayfield ranked fifth in the league with 8.6 intended air yards per pass attempt.

If Mayfield can win the job out of training camp, I think he’ll have a chance to go over this mark given the Panthers’ improved offensive line and the addition of wide receiver Rashard Higgins as a compliment to DJ Moore. 

Mayfield’s interception prop is highly correlated to whether he can get on the field. As a result, this prop has the highest variance, so there’s little value in rushing to the window to bet it. This is an easy pass for me.